SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Trey Lance might not be the quarterback that the 49ers want him to be. He might not take this team from good to great — the mandate that comes when you replace a quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo.
But though his first few days as the Niners’ clear-cut No. 1, it’s easy to see why Shanahan bet it all on Lance. No. 5 is as physically talented as any quarterback in the NFL, and his head is screwed on straight.
If a change had to be made at quarterback in San Francisco — and I would certainly argue that the Niners had reached their peak with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm — then this is the kind of quarterback that’s worthy of a tall stack of chips.
We won’t have a real read on Lance until we see him play a great deal of real football. A few days of padless practice is not a quality barometer. Now, we might have answers in the winter, not the end of August. What we’ve seen so far through the early days of no-pads training camp is some up and some down.
The down is stuff we’ve seen before. Accuracy, especially on short passes, has been Lance’s bugaboo since he was at North Dakota State.
For instance, at Thursday’s practice, he didn’t see safety Jimmie Ward over the middle and threw an interception right to him.
It was a Jimmy G pick — a first-year starter mistake for a quarterback who is actually a first-year starter.
But a play or two before that woeful interception, Lance made a play that few quarterbacks in the NFL would even dare and even fewer would attempt.
Flushed out of the pocket by the Niners’ fearsome defensive line, Lance, a righty, rolled to his left, but on the scramble turned his shoulders, dropped his arm slot, and sidearmed an on-the-button pass to a slanting receiver over the middle.
It was not a Jimmy G throw.
The ceiling is sky-high. The floor is season-tanking low. This is a truly grand experiment.
Lance’s establishment as No. 1 also requires change. The Niners’ offense under Shanahan has been about precision and sequencing. The big throw has never really been an option, either because the quarterbacks didn’t have the arm (Brian Hoyer, Nick Mullens), the confidence (Garoppolo), or the accuracy (CJ Beathard) to connect deep downfield to a receiver with even a modicum of coverage around them.
But there is no part of the field that isn’t available to Lance.
He might not have the consistency to dink-and-dunk the offense down the field just yet, but why take eight plays to do what can be done in one?
Add in the quarterback’s running ability, and the Niners should effectively be running a different offense with Lance at the helm this season.
I doubt we see that offense fully unleashed during Training Camp or preseason. You save that stuff for the regular season and practices that are behind closed doors.
Lance has a tremendous amount of pressure on Lance’s shoulders. This team has a chance to be outstanding this season, but as the 49ers know all too well, NFL teams can only go as far as the quarterback can take them.
But there’s also pressure on Shanahan. He’s all-in on Lance, but can he tailor his offense to best fit the quarterback’s skill sets? Lance is being asked to mold and adapt to Shanahan’s playbook — can Shanahan mold and adapt the playbook to Lance?
This league is defined by offensive head coaches and their quarterbacks. Give-and-take is necessary to have a long-lasting, quality relationship.
In the meantime, there will be a referendum on Lance every day for at least this first season at the helm. It’s ridiculous, but it’s understandable — a team in the NFC Championship Game is switching quarterbacks and going with a complete unknown. That’s bold!
So you’d expect there will be plenty of emotions tied to such comments and proclamations. Flags will be planted, even before August starts.
ESPN NFL analyst Louis Riddick went on ‘First Take’ this week and planted a flag — he made Lance his long-shot bet to win NFL MVP this season. The Niners’ quarterback is currently at 40-to-1 odds with FanDuel.
“It may start slow, but this kid is a unique individual in the way that he is wired and the athletic ability that he possesses,” Riddick said.
“You will see all the things that I know I personally fell in love with about his football character, his football intellect, the degree to which he was a leader up there at North Dakota State, the degree to which he threw the football, beautifully, up there at North Dakota State.
“I think we’ll all see why Kyle wanted this guy. … This is why he believed he could take this football team to a whole new level. As much as I love Jimmy G, he will be a distant, distant memory, and San Francisco will be hoisting Super Bowl trophies again.”
We won’t know if Riddick is right about Lance’s star potential for a long time.
But Riddick is right — right now — about one thing: It’s clear why Shanahan wanted this guy.
Lance has everything you look for when you’re placing a bet. The macro concepts of what makes a top quarterback are present.
That makes him worth the gamble.
Now we just have to wait and see if the big bet pays off.
