It’s safe to say Sean Payton didn’t sign up for this. The former New Orleans Saints head coach has been hamstrung by a historically-poor defense in his first season with the Denver Broncos (who could have predicted that?), losing four of his first five games. So the Saints stand to cash in after trading Payton to the Broncos in exchange for a package of draft picks including their 2024 second rounder.
The experts at Tankathon currently project that selection to fall at No. 34 overall; of course things could change if Payton turns things around and they go on a tear in Denver, but a seven- or eight-game winning streak feels unlikely. It’s looking increasingly certain that the Saints will get a top-40 pick from the Broncos for this move.
But did they accept the right offer? Was an alternative ever truly on the table? That’s what ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggested in a since-deleted report on social media in the minutes after Payton’s trade was finalized earlier this year. Whether Schefter erased evidence of that trade offer due to receiving bad information or to help his sources save face is unclear, but he reported that the Broncos gave the Saints the option of taking their 2024 first rounder if it meant settling for a fourth-round choice in 2023 (which would have fallen at No. 108 overall).
That’s very, very tempting considering the Broncos are slotted in at No. 3 overall right now. That positioning would give the Saints the opportunity to add one of the draft’s top prospects, potentially targeting a young quarterback to take over from Derek Carr in a year or two when cutting his contract becomes feasible. But it isn’t the reality we live in.
Instead, the Saints received Denver’s first rounder in 2023 (at No. 29, which became Bryan Bresee) and their second-round selection in 2024, though it cost New Orleans their own third-round choice in 2024. That pick is currently forecast to slot in at No. 82. So you could look at it as the Saints jumping 48 slots to the top of the second round from midway through round three.
Having the opportunity to add another highly-rated prospect is going to be big for this Saints team (again, assuming current standings hold). They need to hit on these early-round selections as often as possible to replenish their depth chart and prepare younger players to replace aging stars like Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, and Tyrann Mathieu. So choosing to acquire multiple picks in rounds one and two makes sense.
But, man. Imagine the possibilities with the third overall pick? Maybe another team could pile up enough assets to convince Mickey Loomis to trade down out of that spot for the first time in 16 or so years. Ah well. Maybe Schefter was wrong and that pick was never put on the table. What’s certain is that no one — not Payton, Loomis, Broncos ownership, or fans of either team — expected Payton’s Denver run to start off so badly. If Loomis had anticipated that 2024 first rounder being a top-five pick, there’s no doubting that he would’ve taken it. We’ll see where it ends up at season’s end.
