Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG), headquartered in Midland, Texas, operates as an independent oil and natural gas company. With a market cap of $45.8 billion, the company acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas.
Shares of this leading independent oil and gas company have underperformed the broader market over the past year. FANG has declined 7.6% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 22.3%. In 2025, FANG stock is down 4.2%, compared to the SPX’s 4% rise on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, FANG’s underperformance is also apparent compared to the iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 2.6% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 5.2% gains on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s losses over the same time frame.
FANG's underperformance stems from market imbalance, softening demand, China's slowing oil consumption, and geopolitical pressures on oil prices.
On Nov. 4, FANG shares closed up more than 2% after reporting its Q3 results. Its adjusted EPS of $3.38 did not meet Wall Street expectations of $3.80. The company’s revenue was $2.6 billion, topping Wall Street forecasts of $2.5 billion.
For the current fiscal year, ended in December 2024, analysts expect FANG’s EPS to decline 13.8% to $15.53 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion.
Among the 29 analysts covering FANG stock, the consensus is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 22 “Strong Buy” ratings, three “Moderate Buys,” and four “Holds.”
This configuration is more bullish than two months ago, with 21 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On Feb. 14, Roth MKM analyst Leo Mariani has a “Buy” rating on FANG with a $212 price target, implying a potential upside of 35% from current levels.
The mean price target of $213.72 represents a 36.1% premium to FANG’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $256 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 63.1%.
