Whether it is liked by the fanbase or not, the Cleveland Browns are not going to stop going for it on 4th down. And they have good reason to stick with their process because they are quite good at it and they know it. The players love it, the analytics guys within the organization love it, and the 4th down attempts are not going to slow down.
Thus far in 2022, the Browns are tied for sixth in the NFL in 4th down conversions, executing on 66.67 percent of their attempts. On nine attempts this season, the Browns have converted six of them. This is a big step up from a year ago (gazes at the quarterback in Carolina), as the Browns converted just 41 percent of their attempts in 2021.
Using a full season’s worth of data a year ago, only the New England Patriots tallied a higher mark than what the Browns are currently toating through the first four games of the season. The average 4th down conversion rate a year ago was just under 52 percent as well. Over the past two seasons, the Browns are a total of 7-of-13 in the opposition’s redzone on 4th down as well.
CLE is 7/13 on 4th down inside opp RZ (non blowouts) last 2 yrs. All 7 turned into TDs. +0.62 EPA per 4th att
When they've failed opp drive results:
1 TD, 1 FG, 4 3 & out. So only 10 pts back the other way on 6 missed 4th downs & avg field position when CLE got ball back-own 39— Clevta (@Clevta) October 3, 2022
This is a bet the Browns are willing to make every single time.
“We’re an aggressive offense. Stuff like that excites me. We’re not afraid to put it all on the line.” -TE David Njoku (via Mary Kay Cabot)
This is in their nature, their identity. They are a process-driven team, and Stefanski has said as much. The Browns are not going to compromise on that as it has been a staple of the Stefanski era thus far.
And they have no reason to despite a failed attempt on their opening drive against the Falcons.
