FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency in 34 Florida counties — including Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach — on Monday due to the potential of an approaching Hurricane Nicole.
Nicole, a subtropical storm as of Monday, is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by midweek as it approaches the Bahamas then moves toward South Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A swath of Florida’s east coast — from Hallandale Beach north to the Volusia/Brevard county line — was under a hurricane watch by Monday morning.
DeSantis said that the state of emergency was put in place out of an abundance of caution.
“While this storm does not, at this time, appear that it will become much stronger, I urge all Floridians to be prepared and to listen to announcements from local emergency management officials,” DeSantis said in a prepared statement. “We will continue to monitor the trajectory and strength of this storm as it moves towards Florida.”
Forecasters say Nicole is “a large storm” that is expected to move over or near the Bahamas Tuesday into Wednesday, and approach Florida’s east coast Wednesday night. The latest estimates said its maximum sustained winds this week could reach 75 mph, just 1 mph over the minimum threshold for a Category 1 hurricane.
“It’s not out of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas,” experts said early Monday.
The National Weather Service Miami said in a briefing Monday that “overall the threat is increasing for South Florida” with potentially life-threatening storm surges, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and a few tornadoes on the horizon.
The Weather Channel expects Nicole’s center to make landfall on Florida’s east coast Wednesday night or early Thursday, though the “worst of Nicole’s impacts on the southeast coast could arrive by late Tuesday or Wednesday and might last in some areas well through the second half of the week.”
A tropical storm watch is in effect south of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef and from the Volusia/Brevard county line north to Georgia’s Altamaha Sound.
A storm surge watch was also in effect Monday morning for Hallandale Beach north to Georgia’s Altamaha Sound.
Given that forecast, it’s likely South Florida voters will likely begin feeling the effects on Tuesday, Election Day, as the system brings moisture up from the Caribbean Sea. Winds between 30 and 35 mph could come to Florida’s east coast as soon as late Tuesday night, according to the weather service. Hurricane-force winds could reach Palm Beach County and Broward County as soon as Wednesday.
Palm Beach County and Broward County both have between 60% and 70% odds of seeing sustained tropical-storm-force winds over the next five days, according to the weather service, while Miami-Dade County has between 30% and 50%.
AccuWeather, a private forecasting service, estimates Florida could see wind gusts of 40-60 mph, with stronger gusts closest to the storm’s center.
“There is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this week,” the hurricane center reported.
As of 2 p.m. Eastern time Monday, Nicole had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving northwest at 9 mph about 465 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas. It is forecast to turn northwest Monday, then west or west-southwest Tuesday through early Thursday.
Nicole will approach Florida’s east coast on Wednesday night, the center’s latest advisory said, and will be at or near hurricane strength by then.
South Florida will see the heaviest of any rainfall from the storm between Wednesday and Thursday, the National Weather Service Miami said in a briefing Monday morning. Between four and six inches are expected in parts of Palm Beach County and Broward County, though higher amounts in some areas are possible.
“Dangerous storm surge” is possible in parts of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida’s east coast and coastal Georgia, the center’s advisory said. The weather service said storm surge levels could reach a peak of 3 to 5 feet above ground level in northern Palm Beach County, 2 to 4 feet in southern Palm Beach County and throughout Broward County and 1 to 2 feet in Miami-Dade County.
“Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, and outside of the cone, and affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.,” forecasters said.
Some tornadoes may also be possible in Palm Beach County Wednesday into Thursday morning, according to the weather service.
Barry Baxter, a meteorologist for National Weather Service Miami, encouraged South Floridians to stay vigilant.
“We are technically still in hurricane season until the end of this month,” he said. “So don’t let your guard down just because it’s in November. It’s rare we get them this time of year, but we could still get them.”
Forecasters are also monitoring a stormy area of low pressure located 650 miles east of Bermuda early Monday. Forecasters said it could still become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm as early as today before it is hindered by upper-level winds and a cold front.
The system near Bermuda had a 60% chance of developing in the next two to five days, according to the hurricane center, down from 70% on Sunday.
There have been two major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above, so far this season: Fiona and Ian.
The next named storm to form would be Owen.
NOAA has predicted at least four more hurricanes will form before hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.
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