MIAMI — Gov. Ron DeSantis has an advantage among Hispanic voters over his Democratic opponent Charlie Crist, according to a new poll for Telemundo/ LX News. A majority also said they supported the Republican governor’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Hurricane Ian response, housing, insurance issues — and his recent relocation of migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard.
Of the 625 likely Hispanic voters polled statewide, 51% said they would vote for DeSantis if the election were held on that day, while 44% said they would back Crist. Among independents, DeSantis was favored slightly higher than the overall average, with 56% of those polled saying they would vote for DeSantis. Most Democrats, 92%, and most Republicans, 95%, said they would back their party’s candidate.
However, the support for each candidate diverged strikingly when split up by country of origin and region of the state. While Cubans consistently agreed with DeSantis on all issues, most Puerto Ricans backed Crist and disagreed with DeSantis on issues like immigration. Other Hispanics — which included Colombians, Venezuelans, Mexican-Americans and Central Americans — disapproved of DeSantis’ flying of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard and were evenly split on his overall performance as governor.
The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy from Oct. 17 through Oct. 20, focused on the gubernatorial election. A second part of the survey that delves into the U.S. Senate race in Florida will be released Tuesday. The interviews were conducted by landline and cellphone calls, and primarily in English, with an option for Spanish-language interviews if the voter preferred it. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.
With a little over two weeks until Election Day, the new numbers suggest DeSantis may be on track to win over voters in Miami-Dade County, where more than 70% of voters identify as Hispanic. In 2020, the county swung for former President Donald Trump by over 20% from 2016.
“This is quantitative and qualitative evidence of the buy-in that Ron DeSantis has among Hispanic voters in Florida,” said Noah Pransky, National Political Editor for LX News, an online news platform owned by NBC-Universal that targets a younger audience. “Even some of Charlie Crist’s likely voters approve of the job that DeSantis is doing.”
Cubans 'rock-solid' voters for DeSantis, poll shows
When likely voters were asked if they approved of DeSantis’ performance as governor, 56% said they approved and 41% said they disapproved. Broken down by party registration, 89% of Republicans, 62% of independents and 19% of Democrats said they approved. By country of origin, 78% of Cubans, 53% of Puerto Ricans and 59% of other Hispanics polled said they approved of DeSantis.
“The Cuban-American vote, our poll shows, is one of the most rock-solid [voting] blocs for Governor Ron DeSantis,” Pransky said. He added that one factor likely helping him was naming a lieutenant governor, Jeanette Nuñez, who is a Cuban-American from Miami and “really making her the face of a lot of his policies on Spanish media and radio.”
DeSantis’ highest approval rating shown in the poll was on the question of his response to Hurricane Ian: 73% of those polled said they approved, 17% said they disapproved and 10% said they were not sure. In second place was a question pertaining to his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. While 64% said they approved, 34% said they disapproved and 2% said they were not sure.
Despite the criticism he received from other parts of the country for being one of the first governors to reopen his state to businesses and tourism amid the health emergency, Pransky said Republicans’ messaging on the pandemic likely played an important role among Hispanic voters in Florida.
“Republicans have successfully been able to link Democrats’ approach on COVID with a heavy-handed communist or socialist approach in South or Central American countries,” he said. “There really is a large messaging gap for a lot of these likely voters.”
Still, the poll does show some nuances in the data’s subsets. Crist enjoys more support among Puerto Ricans and other non-Cuban Hispanics, with 59% and 53% respectively. And in Central Florida — where Hispanic communities are largely Puerto Rican — 49% of those polled said they would vote for Crist over DeSantis, while 44% said they backed DeSantis and 6% said they were undecided.
While 50% said they approved and 43% disapproved of DeSantis’ recent relocation of migrants to Massachusetts, a higher percentage of non-Cuban Hispanics disapproved of the action by slightly higher margins. The poll says 52% of Puerto Ricans and 52% of non-Cuban Hispanics disapproved the controversial move, while 37% of Puerto Ricans and 42% of non-Cuban Hispanics approved of it.
“It tells us that immigration isn’t a single catchall issue on the campaign trail. In fact, it may be a bit of a wedge issue for Democrats just as it is for Republicans,” Pransky said.
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