WASHINGTON – Democrats will face their biggest challenge in energizing their base to vote since their main villain, former President Donald Trump, left office as they seek to hold onto three governor’s mansions this fall.
Riding a surge of voter enthusiasm due in large part to intense opposition to Trump and his allies, Democrats managed to take full control of Washington and flip several gubernatorial seats over the last two election cycles.
Now that Trump no longer commands the attention he did when he was in the White House, but remains active in politics and unpopular with many voters, Democratic operatives are weighing how central the former president should be to their campaign messaging moving forward.
Governor’s races in California, New Jersey and Virginia — the most prominent statewide elections taking place this year — may provide test runs for how effective Trump-based strategies are in motivating progressive and swing voters to back Democrats ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.
“Donald Trump is very much a motivational force in politics on both sides,” said Jared Leopold, a Democratic consultant who previously was an aide for the party’s gubernatorial association. “It can’t be just Trump, but Trump should absolutely be part of the equation for how Democrats define their opponents.”
While governor’s races in off-election years are unique, members of both parties have historically looked to the results — especially in the more evenly divided Virginia — for a sense of where the political landscape stands at the halfway point between the last presidential election and the next midterm election.
Democrats have made Trump a main focus in all three races. In California, Democrats have aired TV ads tying the recall effort against Gov. Gavin Newsom to “Trump Republicans.” A judge recently ruled that Newsom will be allowed to argue that the recall is an “attempt by national Republicans and Trump supporters” to take power in the state in a guide that goes out to voters ahead of the Sept. 14 election.
In New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy ran a digital ad criticizing GOP opponent Jack Ciattarelli for supporting “Trump’s extreme agenda.”
And in Virginia, the most hotly contested of the three races, Trump has played an even greater role. Democrat Terry McAuliffe has highlighted the former president’s endorsement of Republican Glenn Youngkin, calling him a “loyalist to Donald Trump” in one of his latest TV ads.
President Joe Biden used a similar line of attack when he campaigned for McAuliffe last month.
“I ran against Donald Trump, and so is Terry. And I whipped Donald Trump in Virginia, and so will Terry,” Biden said. “I tell you what, the guy Terry is running against is an acolyte of Donald Trump — for real.”
TWO-PRONGED DEMOCRATIC MESSAGE
Democrats see the message as part of a two-pronged approach to help ensure strong voter turnout in a political environment that is traditionally challenging for the party in power in Washington.
Democratic strategists say they need to balance Trump-based criticisms with a message that highlights the policy priorities Biden and the Democratic-controlled Congress have delivered on, such as the pandemic relief package and the extension of the child tax credit policy.
“They need to vote for something and need to be reminded of what they voted against,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who worked on Biden’s 2020 campaign.
Even as Trump was an animating force for Democratic voters in the 2018 and 2020 elections, he wasn’t always the primary topic of the party’s paid messaging. With Trump often single-handedly dominating the political news cycle, Democrats leaned into ads that focused on pocketbook issues, like health care and taxes, that weren’t receiving as much attention.
Heading into the 2022 elections, Democrats say that equation may be reversed to a degree, now that the Democrats’ agenda is more prominent and Trump is not in the spotlight every day.
“It’s a bit of an open question how much we need to say his name. It’s a different environment now,” said Josh Schwerin, a Democratic strategist who previously worked at the party’s leading super PAC, Priorities USA. “We may have to rethink the strategy and make sure that’s correct.”
Regardless of how often Democrats bring up Trump, the former president’s popularity within his own party will keep him in the political picture, as Republicans say they will need to rely on him to boost their own turnout as well. A late-July YouGov poll found that 84% of Republicans nationwide view Trump favorably, compared to 42% of all registered voters.
“Even though Trump is receding in voters’ minds, much to their relief, Republicans are going to be bringing him more front and center, and that’s going to increase our turnout,” Lake said.
THE TRUMP BALANCING ACT
Democrats, who are heavily favored to win the New Jersey governor’s race in November, will be counting on voters’ opposition to Trump to help deliver a wide margin of victory.
Newsom also has an advantage in deep blue California, though the recall process — which initially was sparked by a backlash to his handling of the pandemic — presents unique challenges.
Voters will first be asked whether they want to remove Newsom from office. Then they will be asked to choose from a list of 41 potential replacements, 21 of whom are Republicans. If a majority votes in favor of removing Newsom from office, the replacement candidate with the most votes would take his place. Some recent polls have suggested Newsom is in more danger than expected.
In Virginia, the one-time perennial swing state that has trended away from the GOP in recent years, Youngkin is facing the Trump balancing act more acutely.
During the GOP primary, Youngkin told voters that Trump “represents so much of why I’m running.” Ahead of the November general election, he has said that he was “honored” to receive Trump’s endorsement, but has otherwise attempted to pitch himself as a political outsider.
“The idea of electing ‘yes men’ for Trump is both a motivator for Democratic voters and a major problem for Republicans with swing voters,” said Jesse Ferguson, a veteran Democratic strategist. “It’s impossible to see Republican candidates repairing the damage they’ve done with swing suburban voters as long as they continue to pledge loyalty to Trump first.”
Republicans have dismissed the Trump-focused attacks from McAuliffe and his allies, saying they are a distraction from issues like crime and critical race theory.
“This is a typical and tired strategy from a candidate who has no ideas or message of his own to stand on,” said Maddie Anderson, a spokeswoman for the Republican Governors Association. “McAuliffe’s focus on the former president rather than the serious issues affecting the state will continue to be a drag on his candidacy.”
The current Trump dynamic is a largely unprecedented one for both parties to navigate. His heavy political involvement is a significant departure from other recent presidents like George W. Bush and Barack Obama, who shied away from the public eye immediately after leaving office.
“Bush and Obama took a step back and created space for candidates to run on their own agendas. That’s what allowed Republicans to win in blue states in 2010 and 2014,” Leopold said. “That’s harder to do with a deeply unpopular president who is the center of gravity for the Republican Party.”
