WASHINGTON — There is a shadow looming over the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Missouri.
For months, former Gov. Eric Greitens has continued to lead the polls in the Republican primary. He’s led as Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt filed lawsuits to get rid of public health protections to limit the spread of COVID-19. He’s led as Rep. Vicky Hartzler picked up the endorsement of Sen. Josh Hawley. He’s led even as his ex-wife accused him of domestic abuse, on top of earlier claims that he sexually assaulted and blackmailed his mistress.
And after back-to-back defeats in U.S. Senate races and growing Republican margins in statewide elections, Democrats see an opening.
“This man’s a predator,” said Stephen Webber, a former chairman of the Missouri Democratic Party. “He’s a danger to those around him, he abuses children, he abuses women. And he’s an awful human being. And it’s which candidate can make that case most effectively. That’s the only realistic path to winning a Senate race here this year.”
Now the two major candidates in the primary — retired Marine Lucas Kunce and Anheuser-Busch heir Trudy Busch Valentine — are competing to prove who would better make that case. In the process, they’re highlighting an ongoing national debate about what message, if any, will help Democrats win over voters in conservative states.
Missouri Democrats are still tuning into the primary — a recent poll found that 63% of Democrats do not support a candidate yet. Despite campaigning for more than a year, Kunce had only 10% of the vote compared to 8% for Busch Valentine, who launched her campaign in March.
“They’re both new,” Webber said. “Neither are people that anyone has long-term relationships with or has seen. I think it’s kind of wait and see, let them have a primary and we’ll see who wins and we’ll see if it’s competitive and then and then engage after that.”
The two have not really sought out opposing policy goals — both came out in favor of eliminating the filibuster in order to pass gun reform legislation. Instead, they have taken on different tones. Kunce is playing the role of the populist, raging against elites who have left behind working-class Missourians. Busch Valentine is playing the role of the pragmatic dealmaker, denouncing the divisive politics that entrench Washington.
Both campaigns trot out the buzzwords of 21st century politics — they say voters are looking for authenticity, for someone who is not a career politician, people who stand up to their party.
But they represent opposite ends of what type of conservative voters might be convinced to send to the U.S. Capitol, someone who fights for the economic concerns of the working class, or someone palatable to the type of suburban voter Democrats have come to rely on.
“I think the sense is that at this point Lucas is a better communicator, but that Trudy may be able to better deliver a message that paints Eric as a psycho,” Webber said. “And that’s kind of the debate.”
Kunce preaches populism on campaign trail
Kunce has a common refrain on the campaign trail — he says he is trying to fundamentally change who holds power in this country.
It’s a populist approach in a state that has gravitated toward Republican politicians with a populist streak — both former President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley.
Kunce’s campaign is premised on the fact that voters are angry about the status quo in the country — about income inequality and Congress’ inability to pass laws to address the major issues facing Americans — and that it isn’t a culture war populism motivating them at the polls, but an economic populism.
He targets the “elites” in charge of the country (Kunce went to Yale on a need-based scholarship and has a law degree from the University of Missouri) and he’s made appearances on MSNBC, calling out members of Congress for holding individual shares in the stock market.
This approach, plus the military background, creates the impression of a fighter — someone who would be willing to take Greitens on head-on. For the past year, his campaign has criticized Greitens, repeatedly saying the former governor should “be in prison,” not the U.S. Senate.
When asked whether voters would find two so-called “fighters” interchangeable, just two candidates being bombastic and saying divisive things about each other, Connor Lounsbury, a spokesman for Kunce, said voters would be able to tell the difference.
“Making up s--- is bombastic,” Lounsbury said. “Saying that workers are getting screwed over, that’s not bombastic.”
After more than a year in the race, this approach has not won over the Democratic establishment in the state. On Thursday, U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver jumped in and endorsed Busch Valentine, saying he appreciated her vision for the state. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee has not endorsed in a contested primary so far, and is unlikely to do so after staying out of more contentious races in states where Democrats are more likely to have a tight election in November.
Kunce’s most high-profile endorsements instead come from out of state, like Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who recently won the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania.
Like Kunce, Fetterman has emphasized rural working-class voters — he served as mayor of a small town in western Pennsylvania before becoming lieutenant governor — and campaigns in shorts and a hoodie instead of the standard politician fare of blue jeans and a plaid shirt.
In the primary, Fetterman faced Rep. Conor Lamb, a more traditional politician who previously won a congressional district that former President Donald Trump carried by more than 20 points and tried to stake out moderate positions in the U.S. Senate race.
Despite Lamb’s record, voters gravitated toward Fetterman, who many saw as the more “authentic” candidate in the race.
“The idea that Democrats are excited about the come together Democrats of 20 years ago is bullshit,” Lounsbury said.
Busch Valentine makes appeals to voters of both parties
In her opening salvo to Missouri voters, Busch Valentine emphasized that there are both Republicans and Democrats in her family.
It’s part of a larger message about how she wants to rise above the political fray and restore civility in a field where political parties often refer to their opponents as the enemy.
“People want authenticity, they want people to tell them the truth,” said Anjan Mukherjee, a spokesman for Busch Valentine’s campaign. “They want people who stand up to their own party.”
Busch Valentine is not exactly Sen. Joe Manchin, the Democrat from West Virginia who has stood up to Democrats so often that they’ve been unable to pass President Joe Biden’s priority spending package that would address a wide range of Democratic priorities, from lowering prescription drug costs to addressing climate change.
Already, Busch Valentine has said she would support eliminating the filibuster, a procedural tool that means most legislation needs 60 votes in order to pass the Senate, a stance Manchin has doggedly refused to consider.
When asked about issues where she differs from her party, Busch Valentine said she does not support defunding the police. Many Democrats, including Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, oppose defunding the police, but the slogan is often used by Rep. Cori Bush, a St. Louis Democrat.
Instead, Busch Valentine’s approach appears more similar to former Sen. Claire McCaskill, a Missouri Democrat who served two terms before losing to Hawley in 2018. McCaskill often highlighted cross-aisle friendships and distanced herself from the party’s progressive wing.
The approach also mirrors Biden, who won the 2020 presidential election in part by pledging to use his experience from the U.S. Senate to foster compromise in a U.S. Capitol that is widely perceived as stagnant. It was an attempt to create contrast from Trump’s polarizing personality.
Busch Valentine’s campaign is vague about who, exactly, will flip the roughly 200,000 voters a Democrat would need to win the nomination. While candidates who have dropped out of the race focused on the type of suburban voters who rejected Trump and helped Biden win the presidency, Busch Valentine’s campaign doesn’t directly talk about the type of voters they’re targeting.
Instead, she talks often about being a nurse, of connecting with voters on a human level. The campaign has not gone after Greitens the way Kunce has. Instead, it has retained an optimism that Busch Valentine will simply win over voters through listening to them.
“People want somebody like Trudy, who is not an extreme ideologue,” Mukherjee said. “She’s someone who is willing to work with the other side.”
