The Democrat Party disputes a recent opinion poll that poured cold water over its prospects in the next general election, saying voters will have the final say.
The findings, released by Nida Poll on Dec 11, showed the Pheu Thai Party is most likely to earn enough votes to lead a government (32.44%) after the next election, followed by the Move Forward Party which polled 11%.
The Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) earned support from 10.76% of respondents, the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party 5.73% and the Bhumjaithai Party 4.96%, while the Democrat Party mustered the least nods of approval from just 4.58% of those polled.
Commentators are openly asking whether Thailand's oldest political party is in terminal decline and what steps, if any, it will take to reverse the trend ahead of next year's election.
Defiant
The Democrat deputy leader, Niphon Bunyamanaee, said that while poll results should be heeded, there are other important considerations.
"It all has to do with which party can gather enough support to form a coalition government.
"A party that does not secure many seats still has a chance of joining a coalition government.
''If the party that wins the most seats cannot form a stable government, it must seek support from other parties. The results of an opinion poll are not a decisive factor,'' Mr Niphon said.
He expressed confidence that the Democrats will garner more House seats than in the previous election with a batch of new policies aimed at securing grass roots support, such as the income guarantee for farmers.
Ministers from the party oversee the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry, the Commerce Ministry, and the Social Development and Human Security Ministry and will certainly have plenty to say, he said.
"We can explain what we have achieved at these ministries,'' Mr Niphon said, adding the party aims to secure 70-80 seats in the next election.
Asked whether its "haemorrhaging" of MPs to other parties will adversely affect the party in the next poll, Mr Niphon said the party had experienced defections several times before.
"This is not the first time that MPs have jumped ship. But this time, those defectors are also attempting to ruin the party's reputation.
"Those who left the party will be replaced anyway. Some left because they were upset the party could not promise them cabinet posts after the next election,'' he said.
Plagued with problems
Rangsima Rodrassamee, a Democrat Party MP for Samut Songkhram, admitted she was worried following its poor showings in recent polling.
"The party has been rocked by a lack of unity following the departure of a number of heavyweights," she said.
"There is actually trouble on two fronts, as the party is in charge of the Commerce Ministry as rising fuel costs have caused prices to rise,'' Ms Rangsima said.
She insisted that she remains loyal to the party, "but when people are experiencing hardship, they vent their anger at the polling station", she said.
"The party may even shrink further after the next poll," Ms Rangsima warned when asked for her prediction.
The Democrats failed to win a single House seat in Bangkok in the 2019 general election.
Slim prospects
Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), said it is unlikely that the current coalition of the PPRP, Bhumjaithai, and the Democrat Party would secure more than 200 combined House seats, which may not be enough to form a stable government.
However, Mr Phichai did not rule out the possibility of the PPRP forging an alliance with the Pheu Thai Party to form a coalition government.
"In this scenario, it would be nearly impossible for the Democrat Party to join a PPRP-Pheu Thai coalition because it is no secret that there is no love lost between the Democrats and Pheu Thai," he said.
Mr Phichai said the Democrats had already lost some support in the last election as some had wanted Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha to become prime minister.
The Action Coalition for Thailand (ACT), which was co-founded by former protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, who was a former Democrat Party secretary-general, also snatched votes from them too, Mr Phichai added.
Following the resignation in 2019 of Abhisit Vejjajiva, the former party leader and prime minister, some liberal-minded supporters had their heads turned by the Move Forward Party instead, he said.
Mr Phichai predicted the party would be lucky to secure some 40-50 House seats this time round.
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political scientist at Rangsit University, predicted many defectors will become rivals with a chance of success as voters are tired of the squabbles with the Bhumjaithai Party over cannabis control, and many party members also feel that Democrat leader Jurin Laksanawisit lacks the charisma and ability to unify a party that is riven with splinter factions.
Mr Wanwichit said he couldn't see the party winning more than 40 seats in the vote expected early next year.
