In 2016, the Midwest lifted Donald Trump to his upset victory in the presidential race. Two years later, many Democrats believe the region will be the site of their greatest success on Election Day.
Democrats sense widespread opportunity to make significant gains in a region that until this year they feared had shifted decisively to the Republicans.
The comeback is fueled not only by energized liberals and college-educated suburbanites who have recoiled at the president. It's also driven by some white working-class women who voted for Trump too. It's a coalition that Democrats hope will lift them to victory this year and guide their efforts into 2020.
"It's kind of amazing how fast things have moved," said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who is working on several races across the Midwest. "Looking at the map, it's going to hopefully be the big signal. It's going to be the heart of our success."
At the Senate level, Democratic incumbents in states Trump carried in 2016 _ Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin_all hold double-digit leads in the polls, which has allowed the party to focus on Senate candidates running in more-Republican states.
That advantage has extended to statewide contests. Democrats appear likely to keep governorships in Pennsylvania and Minnesota (a state Trump narrowly lost) while flipping Michigan's. They also are running even or holding small leads in races for three other Republican-controlled seats: Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, a state Trump won by nine points.
Republicans in those states said they have struggled to energize some of Trump's core supporters in an election in which he is not running.
"Trump has been an anomaly as a candidate," said Saul Anuzis, a former Michigan Republican Party chairman. "The people that voted for him are not traditional Republicans. They're Trump Republicans. The cultural divide is getting them closer to our side, but we haven't figured out how to get them down-ticket," he said.
In contests for House seats, Democrats hope to flip close to a dozen seats across Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Some of the congressional districts in those states were carried by Trump but won by Democrats in previous elections.
"There's a Democratic DNA to these districts," said Charlie Kelly, executive director of House Majority PAC, the main House Democratic super PAC. "They're working class. They've supported Democrats at the House level."
Democrat Celinda Lake, who's done extensive polling in the Midwest, said two groups of voters are in play in the region: college-educated suburban voters and women without college degrees. She said the blue-collar women haven't come to the Democratic side as more affluent voters have, but that the party has been able to make inroads by making populist economic and health care pitches in these states.
"As goes the Midwest, so goes the nation. The Midwest is really a battleground on the economy," Lake said. "If we have a good night in the Midwest, then we're going to have a good night all around."
In Wisconsin, a recent Marquette University Law School poll found Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leading by 17 points among women without college degrees, while the Democratic candidate for governor, Tony Evers, was running even against Gov. Scott Walker with that group of voters. Trump won them by 16 points in 2016, according to exit polls. White men without college degrees have stuck with the Republicans.
Republicans had hoped that a falling unemployment rate, a rising stock market and the tax bill Congress passed last year would provide them with a boost across the country.
But former Rep. Reid Ribble, R-Wis., said the strong economy isn't giving Republican candidates in the Midwest an edge because many working-class voters don't feel like they're better off �� which he said may drive those who cast ballots for President Barack Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016 back to the Democrats.
Democrats hope that will also help their efforts farther down the ballot, where Republicans have dominated in the Midwest over the past decade. Democrats need to flip just one seat to win control of the Minnesota state Senate and two seats to win the Wisconsin state Senate, and nine seats to take control of the Michigan state House.
