The Democratic National Convention is just around the corner, starting next Monday in Chicago. But although celebrations are underway as Vice President Kamala Harris steps up to the party's leadership, some members of Congress may not be so cheerful, with threats looming large that they could lose their positions come November.
It is confirmed that three vulnerable Senate Democrats plan to skip next week's convention— Sens. Jon Tester of Montana, Jacky Rosen of Nevada and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Instead, they will stay back in their states making the case to voters to cast their ballots for them.
The three Senators see an uphill battle at maintaining their seats, facing strong Republican challengers in their own red (or purple) states.
Tester is currently fighting to continue representing Republican-heavy Montana, against the GOP's Tim Sheehy. According to an aggregate of 12 polls by The Hill, Sheehy holds a 2 percentage lead against the incumbent, at 48% to 46%. While analysts expect a close contest, The Hill argues that Sheehy has a 77% chance of winning and flipping the seat.
Tester is the only one of the bunch who has not officially endorsed Harris' presidential bid. According to Montana Public Radio, the Democratic Senator was the state's only Democratic delegate who did not vote for Harris to become the party's nominee during the virtual roll call earlier this month.
Over in Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown faces a strong challenge from Trump-aligned Bernie Moreno.
Although Ohio tends to be a solidly Republican state at the presidential level, the Senate race is expected to be another tight contest, although Brown holds a slight edge. Ohio's mix of urban and rural voters, along with its status as a bellwether state, makes it a key battleground in the race for control of the Senate, with appeal to white-working class voters being paramount to succeed.
According to an aggregate of 18 polls by The Hill, Brown— who has been a member of the Senate since 2007— is leading in the race with 50% of support, while Moreno sees 45% support. This leaves Brown with a 63% chance of winning, but the race continues to be considered a tossup.
But in Nevada, the story is a little different, presenting a chance of optimism for Democrats.
The Nevada Senate race was considered to be a toss up between Jacky Rosen, the Democrat seeking re-election and Sam Broan, her Republican challenger. But a recent poll by the Cook Political Report shows the incumbent with an 18-point gap over Brown. This leaves Rosen with a 73% chance of winning Nevada, according to The Hill.
Nevertheless, Jessica Taylor, Cook's editor for Senate and governor elections, acknowledged that the race remains competitive, even though Rosen currently has the upper hand. Taylor concluded that "at this point, I would much rather be Rosen than Brown." She also cautioned against complacency, noting that in Nevada, "you can take nothing for granted."
On the other hand, as Harris continues to poll strongly, other Democrats in competitive Senate races are headed to Chicago, including Tammy Baldwin from Wisconsin, Bob Casey from Pennsylvania, Elissa Slotkin from Michigan and Angela Alsobrooks from Maryland.
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