Conference title games are less than three weeks away! Two of the five Power Five matchups are already set, with LSU and Georgia locked in for the SEC title game and Clemson and North Carolina slated to square off for the ACC crown. But there’s still plenty to be determined in the College Football Playoff picture, and SI Tickets’ postseason reservation system can share insights on how last week’s games may have impacted the playoff race. Here are four key movers from the week in college football.
TCU’s Improbable Run Continues
10–0 TCU has gotten to this point without accruing many style points: As Pat Forde noted this week, the Horned Frogs have won more games decided by 10 points en route to a 10–0 start than any team in the last 28 years. Saturday’s victory over Texas was no exception, a grind-it-out 17–10 affair far different than some of the shootouts that have defined the Frogs’ season to date.
But with a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game officially locked up and a real path to the College Football Playoff still present, the question remains whether TCU’s remarkable close-game success can continue for three more weeks. The Frogs have held serve while watching others around them in the College Football Playoff rankings lose, and with that, have seen their playoff chances rise every week. This week’s jump was massive: Ticket reservation prices for the CFP semifinals for the Horned Frogs rose 178% on SI Tickets. A huge road test against fellow Big 12 title contender Baylor looms this week, but if they can win that one, the Frogs will likely enter Champ Week undefeated.
Oregon’s Costly Slip-Up
Ever since getting blown out in Week 1 by Georgia, Oregon’s path to the CFP has been slim. But the Ducks’ strong play, driven by a high-powered offense that scored 40 or more points in eight consecutive games, had moved Dan Lanning’s team into clear contender status until Saturday’s loss to Washington. The Ducks finally ran into an offense that could match them point for point, as Michael Penix Jr. threw for over 400 yards, and Washington’s defense got a key late stop to earn a 37–34 win and ostensibly knock Oregon out of the playoff picture.
The Ducks do still have a strong chance of getting to the Pac-12 title game, though those hopes hinge on beating Utah this weekend in Eugene. But even with a needle-moving win like that and another potential big win in the Pac-12 Championship, it’s hard to believe a two-loss Pac-12 team could get into the four-team playoff. That’s why national semifinal ticket reservation prices dropped 48% on SI Tickets for the Ducks after the loss.
LSU Locks Up SEC West
LSU clinching the SEC West with two weeks to play in the regular season would have been on few people’s preseason bingo cards, but the unpredictability of college football strikes again. Now, Brian Kelly’s team can set its sights on fighting for a College Football Playoff berth, with the goal of becoming the only two-loss team ever to make it in this four-team format.
First, it’s a must that the Tigers take care of business the next two weeks against subpar UAB and Texas A&M teams. Then, LSU has to beat Georgia, a team that has at times looked unstoppable, in the SEC Championship Game (in Atlanta, no less). But it seems hard to believe that the champions of the SEC with wins over Ole Miss, Alabama and Georgia wouldn’t get into the playoff, and once there, they’d almost certainly be a hard out. National Championship prices rose 81% for the Tigers after sneaking past Arkansas to clinch the West on Saturday.
Door Opens for USC
One big winner in Oregon’s loss? Lincoln Riley and USC. The Trojans’ path to the Pac-12 title game (and potentially the College Football Playoff) got a lot clearer with the Ducks going down. A win Saturday against crosstown rival UCLA, and Riley will have USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game in his first season at the helm. And should the Trojans win a nonconference game during rivalry week against Notre Dame, that Pac-12 championship could have a spot in the CFP on the line. Perhaps that’s why National Championship game ticket reservation prices for the Trojans rose 45% after the week’s results.
The Trojans will need to win out to get in, and even that might not be enough without help. But finishing the season with three quality wins in three weeks would undoubtedly be a strong closing case, and the Trojans’ one loss was a very close one on the road at Utah. Forde refers to a potential “one-loss brigade,” all with a legitimate case for the playoff. He likes the Trojans’ odds over a one-loss Michigan and Clemson.
