Russia's deluded president believes he will win the war in Ukraine and is preparing to double down in his bloody invasion despite his horrific troop losses, experts fear.
A chilling intelligence assessment of his objectives claim Vladimir Putin is not deterred by western weapons supplies and has actually been encouraged by NATO’s delay in delivery.
A western Russia expert has summed up Putin’s mentality, following being briefed by numerous sources who have come to understand the Kremlin chief’s ambitions in Ukraine.
The report, seen exclusively by The Mirror, says mercenary Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has political ambitions that are a major threat to Putin.
It is highly critical of western leaders for being too slow to give Kyiv’s troops the equipment they badly need for an expected massive escalation by Russia within weeks.
It is now believed Putin is poised to deploy 300,000 press-ganged, coerced, badly-trained and poorly equipped recruits as cannon fodder to Ukraine.
Within months a further half a million more mobilised troops, some from prisons, are also expected to be sent to fight Kyiv’s forces.
It says: “Despite Putin’s lack of progress, he shows no signs however of intending to stop or scale down his demands, find a way out, or make any credible peace proposals.
“There are no grounds for thinking that Putin will give up on his intention to extinguish Ukraine as a viable independent, democratic nation.
“In fact, there are all the signs that Putin will escalate the fighting on all fronts irrespective of what the West does.
“Putin continues to believe that he can win by demonstrating to Ukraine’s Western allies that Ukraine is more important to him than it is to them.”
The assessment suggests Ukraine’s “tactical superiority” is being “countered by Russia’s troop numbers and readiness to accept mass casualties.
“Scattered Russian victories are at a very high cost and driven mainly by Wagner mercenary leader Prigozhin’s political ambitions - against Putin- and opportunities for him to make money by looting, plunder and making deals in occupied territories.”
The dossier says Putin has “failed in his aim of popularising the invasion” and turning it into a “people’s war” favoured by the Russian people.
But it warns the revival of weapons supplies in Russia means that by 2024 the west will be faced with a “formidable Russian army.”
Putin also believes, the report states, that his invasion can outlive western support for Kyiv and that the west will “sooner or later cut and run as it did in Afghanistan.”
It says: “Statements from Western leaders and high-profile policy advisers allow Putin to reach the conclusion that he can still win.
“Three decades of superficially peaceful co-existence have encouraged Western leaders to believe that it is better to negotiate with an aggressor rather than defeat them.”
The report says all these factors “have a disproportionate impact in the Kremlin because they say or can be interpreted as saying what Putin wants to hear."
The report says the British tank supply was more symbolic than practical: “The UK MOD has decided to send a squadron of 14 Challenger-2 main battle tanks is of immense significance.
“Although the numbers are militarily insignificant the move acknowledges and underlines that not only does Ukraine need more and better weapons, it needs them delivered quickly and on a much larger scale.
“It needs greater military capabilities now, not over the next few months, because it is now that the Ukrainian army has a tactical and morale advantage which gives it a window of opportunity.
“Delay will give the Russians the opportunity to restore their military performance, now under the leadership of Chief of Staff General Gerasimov. Far from avoiding conflict, excessive Western caution is actually further encouraging Putin to ramp it up.
“Radical initiatives are therefore required by Western powers right now."
