The future of the Rohingya people is not only a Bangladeshi issue, it is now a global issue. Bangladesh has been seeking the cooperation of regional countries and the United Nations to repatriate hundreds of thousands of Rohingya since they were first driven from Myanmar in 2017. But the results have not materialised, and the security risk is growing.
According to analysts, the longer the repatriation is delayed, the greater the challenge will become for Bangladesh as well as its neighbours. They point to the risk of drugs, human trafficking, sex crimes, terrorism, extremism and cross-border crimes linked to the presence of a large refugee population.
Bangladesh has been trying to solve this problem diplomatically, seeking the cooperation of Asean member countries and others, including China and Japan. There has been no formal response from Beijing, but on July 24, Taro Honda, the Japanese vice-minister for foreign affairs, expressed his support for the repatriation of the Rohingya during his visit to Dhaka.
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is contemplating a visit to India in September, and may raise the issue with her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi. Bangladesh needs to make India understand that the Rohingya crisis has potentially dire regional security implications and that Delhi should do its part to help resolve the issue.
Any solution to the Rohingya issue must of course involve Myanmar, but hopes are dim in the near term, as the military junta continues to rebuff attempts at engagement by Asean and others.
The military-led persecution of the Rohingya in Rakhine state took place under the former civilian government, which did nothing to intervene. The International Court of Justice ruled on July 22 that a case for genocide against Myanmar would proceed despite Nay Pyi Taw's objections. Western countries have imposed sanctions on several generals in Myanmar due to their role in the repression of the Rohingya.
AK Abdul Momen, the foreign minister of Bangladesh, has been actively seeking Asean's help in finding a solution that would lead to Rohingya repatriation. He raised the issue in talks with his Indonesian counterpart in Jakarta on July 14, and was hoping to follow up this past weekend when he attended the Asean Regional Forum in Phnom Penh.
But his frustration has been growing. At an event in Dhaka on July 28, he expressed disappointment at the role of some "friendly" countries. Even after the events of 2017, he said, investments and business activity by some countries friendly to Bangladesh continued to increase in Myanmar.
The United Kingdom, he said, has been supporting Bangladesh since independence. But in those five decades its investment in Bangladesh totalled US$2.5 billion. UK investment in Myanmar has exceeded $2.3 billion in the last five years, he said.
India and China also have huge investments in Myanmar for geopolitical reasons, and pushing for peace talks between the military and its opponents would be in their interests. Asean countries have also invested to develop Myanmar's economy and could play a crucial role in getting their neighbour back on a path to peace.
The United Nations has long been involved with the Rohingya issue. In June, the Human Rights Council passed a resolution calling for the rapid repatriation of the Rohingya. But there have been allegations of weakness in the agency's actual operations, and of spreading hatred against the Muslim minority group.
It is true that the entire world including Bangladesh is now facing a difficult situation due to the coronavirus and the Russia-Ukraine war. But it is also difficult for Bangladesh, a country of 165 million people and limited financial resources, to bear the burden of an additional 1.1 million Rohingya. The Myanmar government is responsible for the failure of Rohingya repatriation and currently has no interest in encouraging their return.
The Myanmar government is creating a frightening situation by continuing to carry out repression in Rakhine. No refugee should be sent back to their country of origin without a guarantee of safety and humanitarian treatment, and these conditions are non-existent in Myanmar at the moment.
Bangladesh has registered about 876,000 Rohingya for repatriation. But only 35,000 have been verified by the Myanmar government. The rest are implausibly claimed to be residents of Chittagong in Bangladesh.
According to Mr Momen, Bangladesh has done more than its share in providing shelter to the Rohingya on humanitarian grounds for five years. But even after all this time, world leaders have failed to grasp the urgency of the repatriation issue.
Unfortunately, regional, global and international forums do not seem able to put much pressure on Myanmar to repatriate the Rohingya. Those engaged in commercial relations with Myanmar have some influence, but even they are finding it difficult to make their point to the generals, who care little for public opinion.
More relief aid and funding to help Bangladesh deal with the many issues arising from the presence of a large refugee population would be a good start. But the attention of European countries is now on the war in Ukraine, and even the bankruptcy of Sri Lanka has not attracted much attention outside of Asia.
Given the current situation, Bangladesh should move forward to solve this problem with Asean countries. Instead of looking to Europe and America to solve the crisis, Asia should prove its ability. China, Japan, South Korea, India and Asean can all play important roles because they all have business relations with Myanmar.
The Rohingya have a long and troubled history, and the mass expulsion in 2017 was far from the first. Similar incidents took place in 1970, 1980 and 1990 at the hands of the governments of the day. Discrimination and hatred, sometimes fanned by radical Buddhist monks, is widespread among the population and the Rohingya have become a marginalised community.
Promoting acceptance and tolerant attitudes towards the Rohingya in Myanmar will be difficult. But the Buddhist communities in countries like Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam can work to soften the attitudes of Buddhist organisations in Myanmar and play an important role in the repatriation of the Rohingya.
Abantika Kumari is an Assistant Professor in the History Department of Allahabad College in Uttar Pradesh, India. She is also a researcher focused on South Asia.
