Government officials have buried an analysis of the financial prospects for some of the most vulnerable farmers in the UK after realising it was almost entirely bad news, the Guardian can reveal.
The analysis was to have been part of an optimistic look at the financial situation for upland farmers, some of the poorest in the country, but minutes from meetings about the plans obtained through a freedom of information request have revealed concerns were raised about the negative findings.
Farming groups said it was “irresponsible” not to make the analysis public after FoI documents showed officials refused to publish it as ministers would not like it.
According to the minutes:
One official commented: “Could end up with no pathways to success at the end. We only want to publish if we have something which is positive to tell people.”
Government officials admitted that upland farmers were falling into financial crisis and might go out of business.
Officials feared that when upland farmers saw the data showing how much money they would make they would sell up.
Officials believed upland farmers were dismissive of the environment.
Many upland farmers only remain financially viable because of the EU-derived basic payment scheme (BPS), a system that will be completely phased out by 2027.
Post-Brexit farming payments schemes will be given to farmers who restore nature, but they are easier to access for those who own their land. Many upland farmers are commoners or tenants, and many of the most lucrative options under the BPS replacement, such as creating wildflower meadows, improving soil heath and reducing pesticide use, are geared towards lowland arable farms. This means upland farmers have feared losing BPS and being unable to make enough money under the new scheme to make ends meet.
To remedy this situation, ministers asked officials from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in 2022 to draw up a “pathways to success scheme” for upland farmers in England to show different ways to make their farms profitable under the new scheme.
But at a series of meetings that year, officials raised concerns about the financial analysis and the scheme as a whole, and concluded it would be better not to publish them. Various reasons were given, with one official saying it was “a case of waiting for the political situation to settle”. Another said: “[it is] important we make sure ministers are happy with what we put out into the public environment – sensitivities around that.”
One official said in a meeting that they were waiting to find out from Defra “the number of people expected to go out of business”, and added that many would take the opportunity to reduce the size of their farm or sell up. However, they added: “Worry if you include land sales in options – dangerous option to promote. We should be focusing how to keep rural communities there.” Another official said: “Agree, that’s a capital not revenue income – personal choice. Not a pathway to success.”
Those at the meetings also believed that upland farmers, many of whom work in England’s national parks do not care about the environment: “A lot up until now be dismissive of the environmental side – challenge to get good engagement in that.”
Officials concluded: “We are not in a position to share economic analysis for the foreseeable, nor are we able to commit to a particular date where we can share the information.” The information still has not been shared with farmers or the public.
Julia Aglionby, a professor in practice at the University of Cumbria, chaired the Uplands Alliance, which represents hill farmers and upland land managers, while the pathways to success work with Defra was being undertaken. She said it was “irresponsible” to not publish the analysis.
“It was both disappointing and irresponsible of Defra not to publish modelling and impact assessments of their new ELM [environmental land management] policies for hill farmers. This lack of transparency understandably makes this vulnerable group of farmers worried,” Aglionby said.
“In the uplands there is a huge potential to deliver more for nature and climate adaptation while securing future livelihoods. Still over seven years since the Brexit referendum, Defra has not fully detailed their offer for the moors and commons. The promise of jam tomorrow is wearing thin.”
The minutes of the meetings revealed the dire situation for upland farmers. At one of the meetings, one official said: “Many upland farmers are heading rapidly into financial crisis and kneejerk-type survival reactions will do little to deliver anything of value in the longer term.”
They added: “The nature of the transition means that upland farming businesses are not seeing a future for themselves – upland farmers don’t understand the steps to run a thriving business.”
Tim Farron, the environment spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats, said the effects were already being seen by farmers in his Cumbria constituency, which contains many hill farms. “These shocking revelations confirm once and for all that this government know full well their diabolic rollout of new payments has been a disaster for upland farmers,” said Farron.
“Family farms in my area have been decimated by this gross incompetence. We now risk losing a generation of family farmers, who not only put food on our table, but also act as custodians of the British countryside. This is a hammer blow for farming and the environment.”
Gavin Lane, the deputy president of the Country Land and Business Association, which represents owners of land, property and businesses in rural England and Wales, said: “Should upland farmers be forced to sell up, this will uproot long traditions and devastate local communities. Upland farmers want to help tackle the climate crisis, but need viable payment and a clear path forward.”
A Defra spokesperson said: “British upland farmers are critical to the success of our schemes. We reject the claims made about the pathways to success project and have taken what we learnt from the project to help develop policy to improve upland farming.
“We have just announced the biggest upgrade to our farming schemes since leaving the EU and have worked with upland farmers to increase payment rates, in many cases for those in existing agreements. We have also developed a new range of actions on moorland that farmers can be paid for, offering greater flexibility.
“There is something on offer for every type of farmer to support them to produce food sustainably while protecting nature and enhancing the environment and we continue to take on board feedback so that our schemes work in the best possible way.”
The National Farmers Union conference begins on Tuesday.
