YOU CAN BANK ON IT
It’s rate day, folks. It’s expected to be the seventh consecutive interest rate rise today — a 0.25% hike, as the AFR reports. That would mean interest rates have gone from 0.1% in May to 2.85% today (maybe) in a bid to slow our skyrocketing inflation (7.3%). There are signs the central bank will pull back soon — our retail sales are up, but economists say that’s because prices are so high, not because we’re buying more. And that’s the whole Reserve Bank theory: higher interest rates make us pinch pennies, and more goods on shelves drive down prices. One thing we are spending money on is dining out — a whopping 30% more than before the pandemic, the paper adds. But our gas prices are positively soaring, and the government has brought forward a plan to force the prices down as early as January 1, the AFR reports. The paper says the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, which would be a central player in nearly any price plan, will meet with the union tomorrow about market intervention. A reminder, as former senator Rex Patrick writes for Michael West Media, that there is no shortage of gas in Australia. We just ship most of it offshore, adding to the profits of big companies. Patrick says we should copy WA and earmark a portion of the gas supply for ourselves.
Talk about crummy timing — high gas prices come as even more freezing weather is on the way for the east coast this week, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. It’ll be a very chilly day today in South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW — “all of which are unseasonal for November”, the BoM notes. Melbourne will cop the worst of the “huge pool of cold Antarctic air”, Weatherzone adds, with the coldest day since July happening this week. Orange, in the NSW central west, might even see snow on Wednesday morning, and “it’s unclear when significant snow last fell in that region in November”, meteorologists say. There’s also a severe weather warning for damaging winds in southern Victoria, The New Daily reports, and flash flooding amid 100km/h winds in Tasmania.
CUTTING LABOR’S LOSSES
Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek reportedly told a Labor supporter she would ditch the stage three tax cuts, Guardian Australia reports. Alex Richardson was talking to her at the Erskineville Public School fair when she revealed she was at odds with the federal government’s stance and encouraged him to write to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Plibersek’s office declined to comment about whether she actually said that. But if she did, she’s hardly the first — Treasurer Jim Chalmers tested the waters with several comments before the budget, and Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones admitted there was a “difference of opinion” among government MPs. Let’s be frank: the cuts aren’t even due until July 2024, and there are two budgets between now and then. There’s every chance they’ll get a rethink in the coming years anyway.
Speaking of controversial Labor policies — independent Senator David Pocock wants to split the industrial relations bill so the unopposed bits can pass before the end of the year, The West ($) reports. The hefty bill will change the bargaining system, kill off the Australian Building and Construction Commission and Registered Organisations Commission, make strides to reduce the gender pay gap, limit the use of fixed-term contracts, give people stronger flexible working rights, implement some of the Respect@Work recommendations, and amend how the “better off overall test” works. The Coalition is opposing it, so Labor needs the Greens plus a crossbencher to get it across the line. But the Senate committee has just three weeks to scrutinise the 243-page bill, and Pocock reckons they need more. It’s definitely had some bad press: it’ll “smash productivity, investment and jobs”, according to one contributor at the AFR ($), while The Australian ($) reports this morning that mining, oil and gas employers are threatening to run a multimillion-dollar campaign against it. On the other hand, efforts to empower workers were never going to be popular with everyone. In any case, Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke says he’s “reluctant” to split it, indicating he probably has the numbers.
FOLDING THEIR CARDS
NSW will not introduce mandatory cashless cards in clubs, even though the NSW Crime Commission found a huge chunk of change put through pokies is the proceeds of crime. The SMH reports independent MP Alex Greenwich, with the support of crossbenchers including the Greens, was gearing up to move an amendment — it would’ve wedged the state Labor Party and government to take a position on the cards, but the whole bill has been shelved as the final sitting weeks tick down. So what else was in this bill? Facial recognition in clubs, and the exclusion of problem gamblers — Clubs NSW and Australian Hotels Association both backed in facial recognition. Greenwich says he’ll turn to a private member’s bill instead. NSW pokies ate up $85 billion in 2020-21, up $10 billion from the year before.
Speaking of gambling, a group of 20 WA miners won a share of the $160 million Powerball last week — each person got $2.65 million. The group formed a lottery syndicate called “We Outta Here” in the mining town of Kalgoorlie-Boulder, each paying about $100 for a ticket. The miners were understandably stoked — one checked the ticket at least 10 times, while another who’s known as a jokester said no one believed him. The miners’ boss, Chris Wood, said they deserved it — “They’re great workers; it is my best shift,” he told the ABC. The chance of a single person winning the jackpot in Australia is one in 45,379,620, as LottoLand says.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE
A “planet killer” asteroid, about 1.6 kilometres wide, is heading in our direction — but it won’t pose a risk to us for the next couple of thousand years, scientists say. It’s on track to come within 7.1 million kilometres of our little blue dot, which is pretty far away — much further than the moon. The thing is, the gravitational pull of our solar system can make things go a little… off kilter. “If this one hits the earth, it would cause planet-wide destruction,” one astronomer admitted. But there’s an extremely low chance of that, boffins assure us, and besides, it’s only going to be a potential problem for our distant descendants who will probably have futuristic asteroid-blasting technology beyond our wildest dreams. We found the asteroid, also known as 2022 AP7, in January — we generally need sunlight to bounce off an object’s surface to see it, and this big guy was hidden behind the sun’s glare, where, “like embers flitting in front of a thermonuclear bonfire, they fade from view”, as The New York Times rather beautifully puts it.
Thankfully, like some sort of cosmic security guard, astronomers are constantly scanning the skies for dangerous asteroids — rocks that are on track to come within 7.4 million kilometres of earth, are about 150 metres wide or larger, and won’t simply sizzle upon entry to our atmosphere like Bart’s comet. Our recent DART exercise proved we actually have pretty good planetary defence here in the good old 21st century, so it’s not like we’d have no plan if a big rock did suddenly head our way. The thing is, asteroids can be a bit hard to spot. Most of the day the sun obscures our telescopes — we can only really root around in the skies for them around twilight. That’s why scientists have been relying on the dark energy camera on the Víctor M Blanco 4-metre telescope in Chile — so far it has identified two asteroids, neither worth worrying about. Having said that, “We know some are still out there to find,” one astronomer concluded ominously. If that isn’t a reason to fund the sciences, I don’t know what is.
Hoping you look up today.
SAY WHAT?
It’s a horrible thing to say but until more people in developed nations are dying because of the climate crisis, it’s not going to change.
Lee White
Gabon’s environment minister reckons that meaningful climate action won’t happen until the death toll surges in the rich countries. White added that poor countries dealing with the worst of climate-driven floods and heat are yet to see the $100 billion of promised climate finance from wealthier nations.
CRIKEY RECAP
However bad things are now in America, there’s a real chance they’ll get worse
“By contemporary US standards, the reaction to what was clearly an attempt to assassinate House Speaker Nancy Pelosi by a right-wing extremist and conspiracy theorist, which ended up with her elderly husband being severely beaten with a hammer, was unsurprising. Fox News commentators blamed Democrats for the attack and expressed sympathy for the attacker by suggesting he’d been harshly treated.
“Republicans used the attack to claim Democrats were soft on crime. Right-wing commentators claimed the attack was a hoax and a false flag operation. Elon Musk, who is committed to restoring extremism, hate speech and conspiracy theories to Twitter, personally spread misinformation about the attack.”
Welcome to widening America, land of rattlesnake Republicans and disengaged Democrats
“Everywhere you look, Republicans appear to have the energy, the audacity and the numbers. They have no alternative program whatsoever, simply the mantra of cutting taxes to release growth, which will magically raise wages and thus fight inflation. But at least they’ve got a mantra. The Democrats, as James Carville was basically ranting about last week, can’t seem to roll out the basic big fear that they need: to scare people off the GOP.
“That would be the charge that the Republicans want to abolish social security — government-owned and guaranteed superannuation — and gut Medicare, the over-65s universal public health care system. Which is perfectly true — abolishing social security means privatising it, like, um, our system. (Shhhhh, don’t tell anyone the US is to the left of us on this aspect of social provision.) Republicans desperately want to, they’ve made no secret of it, so why did the full attack only start to get rolled out this week?”
What to make of XBB and BQ.1, the two new COVID-19 variants in town
“Two new Omicron subvariants are here to play as Australia enters yet another wave of COVID-19 infections. Australian state and federal health authorities have linked XBB and BQ.1 to a growing caseload, but experts are not yet concerned … ‘These variants are a nuisance, but they’re not killing people. At this stage, it’s behaving much better than BA1 and BA2.’
“Epidemiologically, XBB and BQ.1 are alike in name and game to other Omicron subvariants. The World Health Organization’s technical advisory group on SARS-CoV-2 virus evolution (shortened to a pithy TAG-VE) said in a statement on October 27 that neither subvariant is worrying enough to warrant their own title and would ‘remain part of Omicron, which continues to be a variant of concern’. By raw numbers, XBB and BQ.1 are overtaking BA1 and BA2 globally and domestically.”
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Lula defeats far-right Bolsonaro to win Brazil presidency again (Al Jazeera)
How Russia pays for war (The New York Times)
Eurozone inflation climbed to new record high of 10.7% in October (EuroNews)
Supreme Court hears arguments on college affirmative action cases (CNN)
Police arrest nine over Indian bridge collapse, [death] toll reaches 134 (Reuters)
Two men acquitted of Malcom X murder to receive $36m (Al Jazeera)
Visitors trapped in Shanghai’s Disney resort after lockdown announced (The Guardian)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Iran is holding back all women’s progress — Jacinda Ardern (Stuff): “The death of Mahsa Amini in Iran rightly stirred an awakening for many. How is it that a woman could allegedly lose her life for not abiding by strict codes on dress? The protests that followed have shown the power of solidarity and the impact of authoritarianism. Internet access cut. Protesters imprisoned. Further lives lost. Speaking up on Iran and condemning what is happening to women and girls there is not about the West vs other. It’s not about religion, or ideology. In fact, it’s the opposite. The only values we should seek to impose on either individuals or indeed nations are those that are universal. The right to the freedom to practise your own religion – be it Islam, be it Christianity, be it nothing. The right to be safe. To speak. To live.
“We are one of the few countries in the world which has a human rights dialogue with Iran. Through direct engagement, we’ve held in the hope of seeing change. What we have all witnessed in recent months has shown we are further from that place now than when we established the dialogue in 2018. That’s why it will now end. We don’t see the utility of holding talks that aren’t accompanied by a willingness to change, and worse, provide a legitimacy to them that their actions don’t warrant. New Zealand is also calling for the removal of Iran from the United Nations Commission on the Status of Women. It’s critical for New Zealand to join this international action while we investigate further actions our Government can take to amplify our condemnation of Iran’s human rights abuses.”
Daniel Andrews substitutes Gina Rinehart for a touch more debt — John Ferguson (The Australian) ($): “Dan trumps Gina on the netball court but it’s a fair bet the mining magnate would win the battle for best money manager. The Victorian premier announced the $15 million netball funding injection on the same day his treasurer declared the budget deficit forecast had blown out by $1.8 billion. That’s just for this financial year. How is the chutzpah? Insiders familiar with the horse trading that is major events and sports sponsorship in Australia are viewing the Victorian deal as reasonable value for money. Certainly on a par with other similar deals, which are ubiquitous as states fight each other for bragging rights, tourist numbers and the consultants reports that seek to justify the expense.
“The political question is whether voters want their money spent on a goal attack or instead used to help pay down easily the biggest debt bill in the country or renovate their local school. Andrews, in his defence, does a lot of the latter, but not much of the former. In fact, the forecast net debt to 2025-26 in Victoria is $50 billion higher than in NSW and due, in part, to the 2020 lockdown that the northern state managed to avoid. Debt seems to be one of those pesky issues that old people worry about. Victoria under Andrews has been on something of a spendathon for years, billions thrown all over the joint before, during and after the worst of the pandemic. Most voters seem to understand that governments needed to invest in measures that helped its citizens during the pandemic. Just as they understand that money needs to be spent when the floods rip through large parts of the state. But when does the debt tap get turned off and does Andrews have a serious plan for it?”
HOLD THE FRONT PAGE
WHAT’S ON TODAY
Online
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Guardian Australia’s Katharine Murphy and Essential Media’s Peter Lewis will unpack the fortnight’s political news in a webinar for the Australia Institute.
Muwinina Country (also known as Hobart)
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Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe will speak at an RBA board dinner. You can listen online.
Eora Nation Country (also known as Sydney)
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First Nations writers and writers of colour including André Dao, Barry Corr, Brandon K Liew, Elizabeth Flux, Frankey Chung-Kok-Lun, grace ugamay dulawan, and more will reflect on memory in a Liminal anthology called Against Disappearance, at Glee Books.
