Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.
The 118th Congress has been chaotic in many ways, so perhaps it’s unsurprising that Congress is on the brink of missing a government funding deadline Friday at midnight.
Lawmakers are back to the drawing board on a year-end funding package after President-elect Donald Trump said Wednesday that Republicans should scrap a stopgap funding measure, first unveiled Tuesday, in favor of a slimmed-down version.
Elon Musk, the billionaire whom Trump has tapped to co-chair the “Department of Government Efficiency,” spent much of Wednesday criticizing the bill on social media. At one point, he called for any member of Congress who would vote for the measure to be voted out in two years.
Trump allies have been leaning heavily into primary threats as we gear up for the 2026 election cycle. Senators considering the president-elect’s announced Cabinet nominees have been hit with warnings from MAGA loyalists about primary challenges, as we reported this week.
Trump didn’t always weigh in on Republican primaries during the 2024 cycle, but when he did, his endorsement often proved significant. For example, his support helped now-Rep.-elect John Maguire defeat Rep. Bob Good in Virginia’s 5th District. During a news conference at Mar-a-Lago this week, Trump said senators should be primaried if they oppose a nominee for “political reasons or stupid reasons.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee worked hard this cycle to avoid primaries in key battleground states where they were taking on Democratic incumbents. It’s not yet clear how South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, the group’s incoming chair, will seek to handle primary challenges to incumbent senators seeking reelection. Twenty Senate Republican seats are on the ballot in 2026, and there will likely be special elections in Ohio and Florida (for the respective seats of incoming Vice President JD Vance and Sen. Marco Rubio, if he’s confirmed as secretary of State).
That’s something we’ll be back to cover in 2025 after a holiday hiatus. At the Races will be back in your inbox on Jan. 9. Happy holidays, and thanks for reading!
Starting gate
Nevertheless, he persists: Mitch McConnell is leaving Senate GOP leadership but will hold ample sway over Trump’s nominees and agenda, our colleague John T. Bennett writes — and that could potentially see their feud spark anew. McConnell has said he plans to serve out the rest of his term, through the end of 2026, but he hasn’t revealed whether he intends to seek an eighth term.
So long, farewell: Departing senators, from Jon Tester to Mitt Romney, have spent the past few weeks taking their turns at bidding farewell to speaking from the chamber floor. As we reported earlier this week, a senator’s final address on the Senate floor is a reflection of the chamber’s continued reliance on tradition.
435 and growing? Our colleague Justin Papp has the details on a new report that explores expanding the size of the House and, with it, the size of the Capitol Hill workplace. The report, from nonprofits POPVOX Foundation and Protect Democracy, imagines a new House office building and comes as a few lawmakers have proposed bills that would increase the number of House members.
Remembering two House icons: Former Iowa Rep. Jim Leach, a moderate Republican who later endorsed Barack Obama for president, died on Dec. 11. And former South Carolina Rep. John M. Spratt Jr., a moderate Democrat who chaired the House Budget Committee, died Saturday of complications from Parkinson’s disease. Both were 82, and both lost their seats in wave elections: Leach in 2006 and Spratt in 2010.
The year that was: 2024 was jam-packed with major political stories, not least of which were the presidential and down-ballot elections. Roll Call photojournalists Bill Clark and Tom Williams were on hand to cover it all. Check out their most memorable images of the year: Part 1 and Part 2.
ICYMI
NRSC staffing: Sen. Tim Scott announced the NRSC’s senior leadership team for the 2026 cycle. Jennifer DeCasper, who managed the South Carolina Republican’s presidential campaign and previously served as his Senate chief of staff, will be the group’s executive director. She talked to Roll Call in 2018 about how she became Scott’s chief. Rounding out the team is Stephen DeMaura as deputy executive director, Cara Mason as finance director, Brendan Jaspers as political director, Joanna Rodriguez as communications director, Brennen Britton as director of external affairs, Nathan Brand as senior adviser to the chairman and Brittney Godoy as senior finance adviser.
Next steps: Curtis Hertel, who lost a race for Michigan’s 7th District to Republican Rep.-elect Tom Barrett last month, is running to chair the Michigan Democratic Party.
Rematch? Outgoing Democratic Rep. Susan Wild, who lost her November reelection bid for Pennsylvania’s 7th District, isn’t ruling out running again in two years. Wild, along with Rep. Matt Cartwright and Sen. Bob Casey, was among the notable Pennsylvania Democrats who were unseated in last month’s elections.
Keeping his options open: Virginia Rep. Robert C. Scott isn’t ruling out a gubernatorial run, which would entail challenging Rep. Abigail Spanberger, currently the sole Democrat running ahead of a November 2025 election. Punchbowl News reports that some Virginia Democrats are concerned about Spanberger’s “ability to excite Black voters” when she’s likely to face Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, the first Black woman elected statewide.
He’s all in: Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford plans to run for governor in 2026, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported last week. Ford, a Democrat who is term-limited, would challenge Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo, who is expected to seek a second term.
Walker to the Bahamas? President-elect Donald Trump announced he plans to nominate Herschel Walker, the former Heisman Trophy-winning running back and 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nominee, to be ambassador to the Bahamas.
What we’re reading
Turning red in the Green Mountain State: Vermont, home to Sen. Bernie Sanders, is one of the most liberal states in the country, but Republicans found unexpected success in down-ballot races last month, The New York Times reports. The GOP gains in the state legislature were partly driven by public anger over the housing affordability crisis, among other factors.
NEED MONEY NOW! Democratic operatives, fundraisers and former campaign staffers are calling on Act Blue, the giant online donation portal, to clean up its act. More than 140 party insiders signed a letter urging Act Blue’s leadership to do more to address misleading practices such as implying that potential donors have a limited time to give or that donations would be matched by a major contribution from other donors, according to The Bulwark.
Insulating POTUS: The Wall Street Journal offers a detailed account of how White House staff sought to protect an increasingly frail President Joe Biden in the months leading up to his disastrous debate performance in June.
Just can’t quit him: He’s been booted from the House, but disgraced former Republican Rep. George Santos just can’t let go of the limelight. The New York Times found Santos wearing a pair of bedazzled Ferragamo sneakers in a midtown Manhattan bar celebrating the launch of his new podcast. Santos pleaded guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft; he is due to be sentenced in February.
All over the map: The Fulcrum asked five redistricting experts to pick the worst gerrymanders of the 2020s. Congressional district lines for the rest of the decade are mostly set, although a few states could see their lines redrawn again ahead of the 2026 elections.
The count: 72 percent
That’s the percentage of Americans who believe Trump’s tariff policy will have a “direct impact” on their lives, according to a new Monmouth University Poll. That was the highest percentage recorded among several Trump proposals the survey identified.
But, of course, whether that’s a positive or negative finding seems to fall more along partisan lines. Among Trump voters surveyed overall, 45 percent said the imposing of tariffs on imported goods would be helpful, with just 14 percent saying they would hurt. Among those who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris, just 4 percent said the import tariffs would help them.
The poll also asked about the effect of abolishing childhood vaccine mandates, eliminating taxes on things like Social Security and tips, cutting corporate taxes, getting rid of diversity and equity programs in the federal government and implementing mass deportation of immigrants living illegally in the country.
Nathan’s notes
Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales takes a look at former members of Congress who ran for office at the state or local level this year. Such a move is often portrayed as a demotion, Nathan writes, but some of these former members find themselves representing more people in their new roles, along with having more influence and a better quality of life than they had when they served in Washington.
Coming up
We won’t have to wait long for the first noteworthy elections of 2025. Two incoming congressmen, Democrat Suhas Subramanyam and Republican John McGuire, are leaving behind seats in the Virginia Senate that will be filled in special elections on Jan. 7. The Democratic nominee for Subramanyam’s seat is a state delegate, and there’ll be a special election for his seat on the same day as well. With Democrats controlling both the Virginia Senate and House by one-seat margins, control of the General Assembly could be at stake.
Photo finish
Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
The post Deck the House with boughs of chaos appeared first on Roll Call.
