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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Ross Dellenger

Decision Time Coming for SEC on New Football Schedule Format

SEC Football Texas Oklahoma ESPN Alabama (Organization) LSU Mississippi State Texas AM Auburn

With news out that Texas and Oklahoma will move to the SEC a year earlier than expected, in 2024, the conference seems poised to now tackle a pesky subject: its future scheduling format for football.

After a year of debating the subject, SEC administrators are growing closer to, finally, making a decision on what could be a significant change to the structure of future football schedules in the country’s most successful league. SEC athletic directors are expected to make a decision on a future format this spring, possibly as soon as their annual gathering on the Florida panhandle in March.

Last spring, the league narrowed more than 30 scheduling models to two divisionless formats: an eight-game format where teams play one permanent opponent and seven rotating opponents (1–7 model); and a nine-game format where teams play three permanent opponents and six rotating (3–6).

Administrators continue to lean toward a nine-game model, but there is still an unanswered question that lingers over any decision: If the conference moves to a nine-game conference schedule, will ESPN give the SEC additional revenue?

The SEC appears to be on the verge of moving to a nine-game schedule unaffected by divisions, but television revenue will likely determine the path forward.
Alan Youngblood/USA TODAY NETWORK

Last May, league administrators delayed a vote on the scheduling format at their annual spring meetings because of a host of uncertainties: (1) the timeline for Texas and OU’s arrival; (2) College Football Playoff expansion; (3) tiebreaker procedures; and (4) ESPN revenue.

Many of those items are now known. However, while most feel that ESPN will increase the TV revenue, it remains somewhat of a mystery.

If more revenue comes, a nine-game model seems like a formality.

If more revenue does not come, maybe the league remains at eight.

As is the case with much of college sports, a TV network’s decision determines the future course of action.

The same happened to get Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC in 2024. While the two schools and the Big 12 agreed weeks ago to separate early, TV partners ESPN and Fox were the final hurdles to the exit agreement. With Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark aggressively pushing the matter, the two networks struck a compromise.

Their early entrance into the SEC is a boon for a league that has won four consecutive football national championships and 13 of the last 17. Commissioner Greg Sankey’s conference swells to 16 members at an ideal time, adding two blueblood powers in the same year that (1) the CFP expands to 12 teams; (2) the Big Ten adds USC and UCLA; and (3) ESPN takes over as the league’s sole broadcaster.

Texas and Oklahoma are expected to receive a share of distribution from the ESPN TV deal in 2024, but the amount is uncertain. SEC schools expect to eventually pull in more than $70 million in conference distribution by the end of the backloaded agreement.

While SEC athletic directors met last week in New Orleans for their annual winter gathering—both Texas AD Chris Del Conte and Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione were in attendance—no decision on a future league format was made.

Over the last year, there has been disagreement among those in the room on whether to expand to nine games or remain at eight. This is nothing new. Historically, the league is split on revenue-generating lines: the top seven and the bottom seven.

While Texas and Oklahoma have reshuffled the hierarchy deck a bit, most within the conference would consider the top half Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Georgia and Florida. The bottom would be Tennessee (in many ways, the Vols are caught between the two), South Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri.

More than just about any other conference in the U.S., the league has a fairly clear delineation between those top eight and the bottom eight. Many times, they do not agree on legislation, such as this one. What’s better for the top eight isn’t always best for the bottom eight.

For instance, an eight-game model would allow every team in the league an additional fourth nonconference game to, some might say, pick up a needed victory—something the bottom teams need more than their big brothers.

And what do their big brothers want? To make the league more valuable than it already is by increasing the number of conference matchups. A property that is already incredibly valuable could be made even more so.

“The SEC should lean into competing against one another as often as possible in all sports—not just a football deal,” Florida AD Scott Stricklin, a vocal proponent of a nine-game format, told reporters from spring meetings last May. “Those are the ones the fans want to go to or watch on TV. Those are the ones the players want to play.”

It’s not that simple, though.

Tennessee finds itself in the middle of a power struggle between the SEC’s most valuable football programs and its less prestigious teams.
Randy Sartin/USA TODAY Sports

A nine-game lineup has its issues. Teams don’t get that easy extra nonconference win, and they will have an uneven amount of league home games on alternate years. The format also means that games already scheduled years from now might need changing. Several conference teams have scheduled two Power 5 opponents down the road.

All that said, the biggest issue, rising well above all others, is the selection of the three permanent opponents for each program. It is a most tricky and unenviable endeavor that is sure to tick off virtually every fan base in the conference. Athletic directors and coaches have given their feedback on permanent opponents, but ultimately, conference officials will make the decisions.

While the eight-game, 1–7 model preserves the primary rivalries (think Mississippi State–Ole Miss, Auburn-Alabama, Texas-Oklahoma), the nine-game, 3–6 model protects matchups like Alabama-Tennessee, Auburn-Georgia and Texas–Texas A&M.

It may create some odd situations, such as Florida having a permanent opponent that is 1,200 miles away (possibly Oklahoma) or the yearly Texas A&M–Arkansas game going biennial. Also, how do you get rid of the SEC’s most-watched single matchup over the last decade: LSU vs. Alabama? Maybe you don’t.

And how do you invite the Longhorns into the league without their restarting their annual rivalry with Texas A&M? You don’t. That rivalry series must be played every year, several administrators say.

Several months ago, we took our best guess at the three permanent opponents for each team. We based these on three things: (1) primary and secondary rivalries; (2) geography; and (3) creating as much equity as possible.