I learned everything I need to know about preseason football on a Saturday night in August 2015. What follows are the actual headlines that ran in The Inquirer and Daily News the following morning.
A Hit Debut: Sam Bradford survives knocks, setting tone as Birds romp
One and done: New QB shines in his only series
Three-Headed Backfield Monster
Marcus Smith to miss two to three weeks
Hey, one out of four ain’t bad. In fact, it’s a pretty accurate ratio for seeing versus believing in an NFL preseason. That’s the problem with these games: for every development that turns out to be a harbinger of things to come, there are three that will turn out to have no predictive value. And because the red herrings are over-represented, you often end up further away from an accurate picture of reality than if you had not tuned in at all.
If that sounds like the cynical raving of a man who built his fantasy football teams around DeMarco Murray, well, sure, I suppose that’s part of it. But 2015 taught a lot of people that a little bit of late-summer cynicism can go a long way, particularly if you are someone who likes to have some skin in the game. Just look at what happened to the Eagles’ Super Bowl odds that August. By the end a 3-0 start in which Bradford went 13-of-15 to lead an offense that outscored its opponents by 52 points, the betting public had catapulted the Birds title chances from 20-to-1 to 10-to-1. So it wasn’t just me.
The thing I remember most about that preseason is John Harbaugh’s reaction to his Ravens’ 40-17 blowout loss to the Eagles in the second week of exhibition play. The veteran head coach acknowledged that his team was ill-prepared for Chip Kelly’s up-tempo attack and could do little more than shrug as Bradford marched the starting offense down the field on its opening series.
“We didn’t prepare for it by design,” Harbaugh said. “It’s not something we’re going to prepare for. I guess in the preseason, it’s pretty effective in that sense.”
As far as subtle shade-throwing goes, this was trophy-level stuff. And you know what? Harbaugh was 75% right. While the Ravens did indeed have some concerns on the defensive side of the football — they would finish 24th in the NFL in points allowed en route to a 5-11 regular season record — the Eagles weren’t nearly the world-beaters they appeared to be. By the start of the following regular season, Bradford, Murray, and Kelly were no longer employed by the Eagles, their departures paving the way for the team’s 2017 season in which they actually did beat the world.
Which brings us back to now. After an impressive preseason opener against the Jets, it might be helpful to balance everything we saw with what we could not possibly see.
For instance . . .
1) We saw that Jalen Hurts is a better player now than he was at the end of last season. We didn’t see how that will translate against improved defenses.
The most encouraging sign from Hurts in his 6-for-6, 80-yard performance against the Jets was that none of those yards went to A.J. Brown. The close off-the-field relationship between the two players is well-documented. Even if it wasn’t, there’s a tendency for young quarterbacks to fixate on their top target to an unhealthy degree. Brown is unquestionably the most talented receiver on the field, more than any Eagles receiver since Terrell Owens. Forget the numbers. As far as complete skill sets go, he is easily inside the top 10 in the NFL. Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Mike Evans — those might be the only players who rank ahead of him. The fact that Hurts took what the defense gave him is a concrete positive.
But, as Harbaugh noted, preseason defenses are more than willing to let an opposing quarterback take. The big question facing Hurts this season is if he can improve his ability to read and react to fronts and coverages that are designed to counteract the things that he does best. We simply are not going to see that in a preseason game.
2) We saw that Nick Sirianni is the perfect head coach for the Eagles at their current stage of development. We didn’t see how his offensive scheme will evolve.
One thing I did not have on my list of things to watch for on Friday night was Sirianni trying to fight an opposing sideline. Lo and behold, that’s exactly what he seemed ready to do after Hurts absorbed an egregious late hit after scrambling out of bounds on the Eagles’ opening possession against the Jets. Sirianni’s headset toss and profanity-laced hold-me-back tirade in the wake of the play was perfect because it was authentic. The difference between him and so many other coaches is that his energy does not feel contrived, and I think that’s because Sirianni is one of those rare coaches who actually believes that the game is not about himself.
There is a Ted Lasso-type genuineness to Sirianni, and it’s a good fit for a team that is perfectly happy to have people think that it is rebuilding. The energy he brings is an unquestionable positive.
At the same time, energy only goes so far in the NFL. At the end of the day, scheme and talent are what matters most. Sirianni’s decision to hand over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Shane Steichen was very much on brand. But no amount of preseason football will be able to show us whether it was the right call. Because, again, preseason gameplays go out of their way to avoid showing any discernible scheme.
3) We saw that the Eagles defense has the potential to be a positive factor in the win-loss column. We didn’t see if Jonathan Gannon can live up to the hype.
I think he can, and I think that the defensive side of the ball is where this team’s true potential lies. Gannon got a bad rap last season for his inability to slow down elite quarterbacks. If you looked close enough, though, the Eagles were a well-coached unit that simply did not have the talent to do the things they needed to do.
On Friday, you saw the improvement in individual talent. Jordan Davis has the potential to be a serious problem for opposing centers and guards. James Bradberry is an obvious upgrade over Steven Nelson. The linebackers are actual NFL players, at the very least.
On individual talent alone, we saw that the Eagles can’t help but be a better defense. Exactly how much better? That’s the tantalizing unknown. I do know this: a dominant defense can take a team a long way with even average quarterback play. Last year at this time, it was tough to see a path to dominance for the Eagles defense. This year? Gannon has an opportunity to show that he deserves those head coach interviews.
