HOUSTON — Good players.
Dave Dombrowski said it with a smile. The Phillies team president had just been asked if he could identify any common variables among the four rosters that he has taken to the World Series.
“That’s what gets you there,” Dombrowski said as he sat in the visitor’s dugout at Minute Maid Park on Thursday afternoon. “The thread is good players. That’s really the thread.”
It’s a much different story when you look at how a team acquires those players. That was made perfectly clear on Friday morning, when the Phillies and Astros announced their final World Series rosters ahead of Game 1.
The Phillies will take the field with a group that was built on a foundation of high-priced veterans. Roughly 60% of the Wins Above Replacement produced by the roster during the regular season came from players who began their careers in other organizations, with 41% of those WAR coming from players who signed as free agents. Yet the Phillies have also reaped plenty of production from draft picks like Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, and Bryson Stott.
Conversely, the Astros have relied heavily on their international scouting and player development in building their roster. Roughly two-thirds of their total team WAR in the regular season came from players who began their careers in the organization, including a whopping 36% from international amateurs.
The international market is one area where the Phillies are focused on improving. The Phillies have found plenty of diamonds in the rough over the years, from catcher Carlos Ruiz to pitchers Antonio Bastardo and Héctor Neris, the latter of whom will be suiting up for the Astros in this year’s World Series. Seranthony Domínguez and Ranger Suárez both signed with the Phillies as international amateurs, Domínguez from the Dominican Republic and Suárez from Venezuela. Yet this year’s World Series roster does not feature a single hitter who joined the organization as an international amateur free agent.
“It’s something we spend a lot of time on,” Phillies general manager Sam Fuld said, “recognizing that we can continue to pour resources and spend time and energy on identifying untapped talent, and using the resources that are out there. We wouldn’t be where we are without players like Seranthony and Ranger, but we can always continue to get better.”
Conversely, the Astros have struck gold repeatedly on the international market. Four of their five starting pitchers during the regular season were acquired internationally, including Game 2 starter Framber Valdez. International players logged three times as many innings for Houston as for the Phillies this year.
The Astros have also had considerable success in the first round of the draft. In 2015, they used a pair of top-five draft picks on right fielder Kyle Tucker and third baseman Alex Bregman, who have combined for 43.3 Wins Above Replacement in their careers. When Houston won the World Series in 2017, they did so thanks in large part to the contributions of shortstop Carlos Correa and outfielder George Springer, a pair of first-round picks who have since departed as free agents. This year’s team also features pitcher Lance McCullers, the No. 41 overall pick in 2012.
The Phillies, meanwhile, have reaped huge dividends from 2014 first-rounder Nola and 2014 fifth-rounder Hoskins. While their struggles in the first round are well documented, the Phillies have gotten a similar level of production out of the draft as the Astros have. Bohm and Stott have yet to achieve the level of success of fellow early-first-rounders Tucker and Bregman, but they have had some big moments this postseason and are both still early in their careers.
The big story on the free-agent front is the Phillies’ batting average on their big-ticket contracts. Wheeler and Harper have both been significant values even at their price tags. Thus far, Kyle Schwarber has been worth every penny of the four-year, $79 million deal that he signed this offseason. And, next year, he won’t have to deal with the shift.
The Astros’ biggest free-agent signing will be on the mound tonight in Game 1. Like J.T. Realmuto, Justin Verlander was originally acquired in a blockbuster trade before testing the free-agent waters and eventually re-signing.
Houston has performed well on the trade market, acquiring designated hitter Yordan Alvarez and closer Ryan Pressly for a combined price tag of Josh Fields, Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcalá. Of that group, only Alcalá has made any contributions of note as a major leaguer, with solid seasons in the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen in 2020 and 2021.
In addition to starting second baseman Jean Segura, whom the Phillies acquired from the Mariners in return for former top prospect J.P. Crawford, the current World Series roster features a number of players acquired in low-cost deals. Relief ace José Alvarado tops the list, followed by recent trade deadline acquisitions like pitchers Kyle Gibson, Noah Syndergaard, David Robertson, and center fielder Brandon Marsh.
All told, this year’s World Series is a case study in the variability of roster construction. The Astros clearly have the edge in depth, thanks in large part to their ability to discover and develop amateur talent. But the Phillies won’t apologize for having the financial resources to acquire and retain top-end talent. Their future may be in the hands of an overhauled player development operation headed by Preston Mattingly and Brian Barber, but the present speaks for itself.
