There aren’t a lot of interesting trades that happen less than 24 hours before opening day. Any major leaguer who gets dealt didn’t fit on somebody’s roster. Any minor leaguer who gets dealt for somebody like that is essentially a penny ante. In other words, the only players who get traded this time of year are players who are, by definition, expendable.
So I’ll be careful when I use the word “interesting” to describe the Phillies’ acquisition of Cristian Pache on the eve of their season opener against the Rangers. It’d be real easy to talk yourself into thinking that this is going to end up as another example of Dave Dombrowski’s brilliance at the margins. That the Phillies have somehow managed to acquire a considerable degree of upside in addition to the exact sort of win-now player they’ve been seeking all spring. After all, Pache is just two years removed from life as a consensus top 25 prospect. The last time he was traded — exactly one year and 15 days ago — he was one of the ostensible centerpieces of a deal for an MVP-candidate third baseman who was coming off a season in which he hit 39 home runs with a .911 OPS.
And Pache is still only 24 years old!
But before we get carried away, let’s keep in mind a couple of realities. One, the A’s have had a much closer look at Pache than the Phillies have had. Two, the A’s are a rebuilding team coming off a 60-win season. Three, the A’s decided against keeping Pache on their active roster despite the fact that he could not be optioned to the minors.
None of this is to say that the guy doesn’t have potential, or that the A’s are an organization that won’t occasionally mis-evaluate its talent in dramatic fashion (hello, Max Muncy). It’s just some perspective. Pache is still a bit of a lottery ticket, but the odds of the Phillies hitting big on him are probably the same as the A’s hitting big on the guy the Phillies sent them: soon-to-be 24-year-old reliever Billy Sullivan, a strikeout arm with erratic command who posted a 5.12 ERA at double-A Reading last season and did not make MLB.com’s list of the organization’s top 30 prospects.
The more interesting question: How good can Pache be in the role that the Phillies acquired him to fill?
One thing we can be reasonably certain of is that he does have a place on this Phillies roster. Pache is widely regarded as an elite defender in center field. Combine that with the fact that he hits right-handed, and the Phillies have a player who they can feel comfortable subbing in for the lefty-hitting Brandon Marsh if the latter’s struggles against left-handers continue.
Problem is, there’s a real question as to whether Pache will give the Phillies an appreciably better matchup against lefties than Marsh. It would be an understatement to say that Pache has struggled at the plate in his 332 career major league plate appearances. There’s a strong argument to be made that he’s been the worst hitter in the game. His .439 OPS ranks dead last among players with at least 300 plate appearances since 2020. By a wide margin. The next closest hitter is Michael Perez, whose .504 OPS is 65 points higher.
Fun fact: Pache’s .361 career OPS against righties is lower than Bryce Harper’s career on-base percentage against lefties.
But what about lefties?
Well, Pache hasn’t hit them well either, with a .214/.267/.337 line in 106 career plate appearances. That’s a really bad platoon split. But it’s arguably better than Marsh’s .220/.253/.266 career mark. In 2022, Marsh posted a .486 OPS against lefties. Pache posted a .598 OPS. Clearly, .598 is greater than .486.
All that said, let’s keep in mind the scale we are talking about. Compare Pache’s platoon performance against Matt Vierling’s from last season. The latter hit .307/.343/.423 in 178 plate appearances against lefties. That’s a .766 OPS, which clearly made sense to sub in for Marsh.
Pache? Well, the numbers say the bat may not make a whole lot of difference. But, in theory, the defense will be good enough that they won’t be sacrificing much out there.
Long story short, we shouldn’t let Pache’s name and one-time blue-chip status distract from what this deal is: a low-cost acquisition who fills an immediate role that makes the Phillies marginally better. Who knows, he could end up being the next Edmundo Sosa. But he could also end up passing the baton to Dalton Guthrie or Scott Kingery or a right-handed hitting first baseman at some point down the line.
