Where are all the people who wanted to know why nobody was going to Phillies games this summer?
This.
This is why.
This is why Citizens Bank Park had all the energy of a larvae convention. This is why a Friday night in the upper deck looked like a Tuesday night at the zoning board. This is why the Phillies couldn’t attract a crowd if they were topless in church.
A month ago, they were 17 games over .500. They had a five-game cushion in the playoff race. They had a schedule that ranked among the easiest in baseball. Math dweebs like me said they had a 97% chance of making the postseason.
Now? They have lost 10 of their last 13 games. They’ve lost five straight games. They had Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola on the mound in the first two games of a series against a Cubs team that was 19 games under .500. The Cubs are now 16 games under .500. The Phillies’ magic number is seven with seven games to play.
They’re really going to blow this, aren’t they?
That six-game lead over the Brewers in the win column is gone. Those playoff odds have fallen from 97% to below 60. The Phillies have as good of a chance at making the playoffs as the Bucs had of beating the Saints in Week 3. Apparently, the math dweebs still can’t account for inevitability.
Whether or not they blow it, what really matters is that the question can be asked. It’s the same question that people asked themselves this summer as they studied ticket prices and thought about postgame traffic. It’s the same question people asked themselves before deciding to spend an extra day at the shore. It’s the same question people have been asking themselves every August and September since 2018. What are the odds that my emotional investment will be rewarded? What are the odds that I do not end up a lost and broken soul? Do I really want to spend my Saturday spackling another hole in the drywall?
Granted, they aren’t done. Not close. They have four straight games against the Nationals, a team they’ve beaten in 13 of 15 this season. The Phillies then have three games against an Astros team that is just one win away from clinching everything it can before the playoffs. Things are not as dire as they could be.
But things also are not great. Unless they win six of their last seven, they will be relying on the Brewers to lose. Five wins with two Milwaukee losses gets them in. Same goes for six and one, and so on. Problem is, the Brewers play all seven of their remaining games at home: four against the 64-91 Marlins, three against the 72-84 Diamondbacks.
Compounding matters is the looming postseason schedule. It’s an absolute grind of a thing, one that stiffly penalizes a team that either does not have pitching depth or has worn its staff out trying to clinch. In order for a starting pitcher to be available on normal rest for Games 1 or 2 of the wild-card round, he cannot start Games 161 or 162 of the regular season. Unlike previous years, there is only a single day off between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs. And the opening series is best-of-three over three straight days.
Given the options, the Phillies have done the reasonable thing in lining up Wheeler and Nola to make their final starts of the regular season in Games 159 and 160. Those could still be the clinchers.
Maybe it’s a good thing these games will not be at home. I’m not sure the energy would be all that constructive. The Phillies finished their home slate having drawn 2.28 million fans. That’s the lowest total of any of the National League teams in the playoff race. The Dodgers, Cardinals, and Braves have all hit the 3 million mark. The Padres will get there too if they average 37,500 for the rest of their season-ending home stand. Even Mets fans have been showing up to the tune of 32,000 a night. And they had to bum rides from their moms!
On the one hand, I can understand the disappointment from those who actually did show up. The Phillies would have had better luck selling seats as time-shares with an obligatory three-hour presentation on baseball. On the other hand, attendance lags meaningful wins. That was the case in 2007 and 2008 just as it is now. These next seven games aren’t just a chance for the Phillies to do something they haven’t done since 2011, they are a chance for the team to market themselves as something their fans can believe in. Until then, remember the immortal words of George R.R. Martin.
The wise sailor flees the storm as it gathers.
