Dave Ramsey says he's tired of hearing the same doom-and-gloom predictions about the U.S. national debt and that people warning about an imminent collapse have been wrong for decades.
A Slow-Motion Crisis, Not a Sudden Collapse
“I’ve observed people in my world write books about the economic end of the world,” the personal finance expert said in an interview with comedian Theo Von last year. “And they keep being wrong, so I don’t want to write that book.”
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Ramsey, who once feared the growing debt in his 20s, says he no longer believes it’s going to bring down the U.S. economy in a dramatic crash. “Is it concerning? Yeah, it’s concerning. But is it going to cause a crash? Apparently not,” he said.
Instead, he argues the national debt chips away at growth in more subtle ways. Government borrowing crowds out private investment because Treasury bonds soak up capital that could otherwise fund businesses. “It’s stealing money from the economy in that sense,” Ramsey said.
Others, though, see a crisis already in motion. Since Ramsey’s interview, the national debt has climbed another $2 trillion, hitting $38 trillion.
“You feel a little bit like Paul Revere—except instead of the British coming, the crisis is coming,” former president of the Council on Foreign Relations and veteran diplomat Richard Haass told Fortune recently.
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Haass argues that the debt has become a national security threat, saying the $1 trillion spent on interest last year outpaced military spending. He warns that rising debt limits U.S. options abroad and could spiral into chaos if investors lose confidence or geopolitical rivals, like China, “weaponize its Treasuries.”
Haass laid out two possible outcomes: a sudden meltdown triggered by market panic, or a continued slow squeeze that weakens U.S. power over time. “You don't need a bond market collapse to have a crisis,” he said.
University of California, Berkeley Professor of Economics and Political Science Barry Eichengreen sees the biggest problem not in the numbers, but in Washington’s inability to act. “Political polarization is higher in the United States than in any other advanced country for which we have comparable data,” he told Fortune recently. “It is deeply debilitating in terms of our ability to achieve consensus and stability and productive policy results.”
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Eichengreen says past efforts to reduce debt relied on bipartisan cooperation, which no longer exists. Neither party is willing to cut major programs like Social Security or raise taxes, and attempts like the Trump-Musk Department of Government Efficiency program fell short.
Despite their differences, all three agree the debt poses real consequences. Whether it’s eroding investment, limiting global influence, or draining future budgets, the $38 trillion figure isn’t just a number on a screen.
Still, Ramsey believes the stock market remains a solid place for long-term investing. “I do think it’s still a safe place for people to invest. I’ve got millions and millions of dollars in mutual funds,” he said.
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