Sometimes you come into a final NFL Sunday with all the players and all the numbers lining up in a way that explains a team’s record. And sometimes you get a season like the Miami Dolphins this year, where the sum is less than the parts.
That’s the epitaph waiting to be changed or chiseled Sunday. There’s no other way to see it. The Dolphins are 8-8 and needing a win against the New York Jets and for Buffalo to beat New England to make the playoffs. Right now, that says this team is no different than most Dolphins teams of the past two decades.
But look at the parts. Tyreek Hill brought all the impact anyone hoped, ranking second in the league in receptions and receiving yards and first with seven plays over 40 yards. Jaylen Waddle ranks sixth in receiving yards, too, to provide this offense with the most dynamic Dolphins receivers in 40 years.
Left tackle Terron Armstead, too, is a Pro Bowl replica of his previous nine years, injuries and all. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, down in December and out in January, still leads the league in passer rating at 105.5.
Raheem Mostert averages 4.8 yards per carry and Jeff Wilson Jr. 4.7 yards. That’s more than any running back with more than 40 carries since Jay Ajayi’s 4.9-yard average propelled the Dolphins to the 2016 playoffs.
Connor Williams’ signing and move to center has been a success. Guard Robert Hunt has played well enough that Hill plopped next to him at his locker when Pro Bowl votes came out and asked me, “Why isn’t he in the Pro Bowl?”
Coach Mike McDaniel entered with a heavy run-offense background and has the NFL’s third-best passing attack (273.1 yards a game) in a league where passing wins. This offense ranks 10th in the league with 24.1 points a game. Good, right?
Two years ago Chan Gailey’s offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and a temporary cast averaged 25.3 points.
“We’re leaving points on the field, I think everyone sees that,’’ McDaniel said after an October win against Pittsburgh.
That never changed enough. Their sum, you see, should be more than the parts, too. At least on a good team, a rising team, the kind the Dolphins have shown only stretches of being.
Move to the defense, where Christian Wilkins has blossomed into a star while playing more snaps than any defensive lineman in the league. Jaelan Phillips, in his second season, has nine sacks and ranks 13th among edge rushers, according to ProFootballFocus.com, just ahead of stars like Chase Young, Joey Bosa and J.J. Watt.
Veteran cornerback Xavien Howard was surprised he made the Pro Bowl — but he did, and it tells of his season in the larger perspective. Cornerback Kader Kohou has been a rare find, an undrafted rookie who doesn’t just start but plays well enough that New England avoided throwing at him last Sunday.
Sure, the defensive secondary has been the hardest unit hit by injuries. But explain this: The defense is dominant at home in surrendering just 16.9 points in Hard Rock Stadium. But it doesn’t travel, giving up 34.4 points on the road.
“It’s a combination of things,’’ linebacker Jerome Baker said. “But none of that matters right now with one game left.”
None of it matters, yet that combination explains how the Dolphins enter Sunday at 8-8 at the end of a long, winding road of hope that is one part equally disappointing and mystifying. Look closer at how all these good parts fit together.
The offense ranks last in rushing attempts, showing no attempt to have a balanced game. They’re not a disciplined team, either, ranking fourth in penalties (with a second-most 22 more declined). And while they have a plus-5 turnover margin at home, their minus-12 turnover margin on the road explains their 3-6 record as much as the bloated defensive numbers.
You’d expect a young, improving roster after this rebuild, too, even if the three first-round picks from 2020 aren’t contributing right now, and other young players like safety Jevon Holland and defensive tackle Raekwon Davis have taken second-year steps back. It happens. It’s not always a straight line for players’ development.
But this late-season swoon reminded how they entered the league with built-in injury questions and the seventh-oldest roster (players an average 26.2 years). Did this team just get bad in December? Or did it get predictably tired and beat up?
Now they are likely relying on a seventh-round rookie quarterback in Skylar Thompson in the biggest game of the year. They still have more talent than the Jets. The question, just has it has been all year, is if their sum can be equal to their parts.
