Fears are growing that a ‘major’ weather event could trigger an extreme bout of snowfall similar to the ‘Beast from the East’ that brought the country to a standstill five years ago.
Weather models show that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is now ‘likely’ to take place.
This can lead to cold, dry weather coming into the north of Europe and across Ireland.
READ MORE: Ireland ‘Beast from the East’ causing event now ‘likely’ as ‘major’ weather alert issued
Forecasters have pinpointed the end of February into the start of March as the date Ireland would be impacted by the weather phenomenon - but have cautioned that its exact impacts are still uncertain this far out.
In 2018, it was the occurrence of an SSW event that drove the Arctic deluge that left Ireland covered in deep snow - while the following year, there was another SSW event that had little impact on Ireland’s weather.
Independent Irish forecaster Alan O’Reilly is monitoring the possibility of an SSW event and how it may affect Ireland.
Sharing weather models on his popular Carlow Weather social media accounts, he wrote: “Latest weather models showing risk of SSW increasing but remember any impacts on our weather are uncertain and if it does impact our weather it would likely be towards the end of this month or early into March.”
In an update, he continued: “Models still showing SSW event likely but I can’t stress this enough, it does not mean we will see a beast from the East. It can have very little impact on our weather, it’s wait and see. Models do show increased chance of blocked and possibly cooler weather around start of March
“Latest ECMWF update shows full agreement on the model for reversal of winds and SSW. So an SSW will happen we know that now but what we don’t know is the impact on our weather. That is wait and see.”
It comes as the UK’s Met Office published a new blog post and issued a weather alert.
They said: “The latest forecasts are showing that a major SSW is now likely to take place. The recent minor SSW weakened the SPV and it’s now likely to collapse and reverse in the middle of February.
“A major SSW often makes the jet stream meander more, which can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe, including the UK [and Ireland]. This blocking high pressure can lead to cold, dry weather in the north of Europe, including the UK [and Ireland], with mild, wet and windy conditions more likely for southern areas of the continent. However, this is not always the case and impacts on UK weather can also be benign when an SSW occurs.”
Prof Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Forecasting, also pinpointed late February and March as the exact date Ireland would see any impacts from a SSW.
He said: “There is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring. Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK [and Ireland] weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”
Meanwhile, Met Eireann’s current extended range forecast for February suggests the most likely scenario is for broadly changeable weather with rain and gusts at times.
The national forecaster issues monthly forecasts that is says “can at times provide an insight into weather patterns for the month ahead” but advises they “should not be used for specific planning purposes” as they “have generally low skill” because “forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere”.
Its forecast for February 6 to 12 reads: “There is moderate confidence for high pressure to dominate our weather for week 1. The high pressure will extend from the continent resulting in a mostly southerly airflow. Conditions will be overall quite dry, with any periods of precipitation resulting in small amounts. Mean air temperatures will trend slightly above average for the week. Forecast confidence is moderate for this scenario with no particularly hazardous weather expected.”
For the week of February 13 to 19, it continues: “There is less certainty for week 2 but currently it looks like conditions will be slightly more unsettled with lower pressure extending over the country from the north bringing a mostly westerly airflow. Temperatures look to remain slightly above average and precipitation amounts look set to be above average everywhere but the east and south coasts though amounts are indicated to be low. The risk of hazardous weather is low, however forecast certainty is also low.”
Looking ahead to February 20 to 26 it says: “High pressure looks set to build again from the southeast in Week 3 bringing slightly more settled conditions. However low pressure is indicated to be close by to the northwest. Thus, rainfall amounts are indicated to be slightly above average almost everywhere (with the exception of the east coast). Again, mean air temperatures are trending to be slightly above average everywhere. Forecast confidence is low at this point.”
For the week of February 27 to March 5, Met Eireann's monthly forecast concludes: “Confidence is very low at this point for Week 4 but at the moment it looks like the situation will be similar to week 3 with Ireland between low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to the southeast. This is indicated to result in slightly higher than average rainfall in the west and slightly higher than average temperatures throughout the country.”
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