Addressing the BRICS Business Forum Leaders’ Dialogue at Johannesburg last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “Soon, India will become a $5 trillion economy.” In 2018, a working group under the Ministry of Commerce and Industry set 2025 as a deadline for achieving the same. The economic slowdown induced by the COVID-19 pandemic has upended the target deadline.
With the revival of the economy now, and the general elections on the horizon, official rhetoric on this count has resumed. While addressing the nation on the 77th Independence Day from the Red Fort, Mr. Modi noted that India was the world’s 10th largest economy in 2014, but now stands at fifth spot. He has also invoked a “third term” in office saying that India would be among the world’s top three economies by then.
Even if one ignores the political hubris and sidesteps the serious debate over the methodological rigour of India’s GDP estimates, the problems with the Prime Minister’s economic claims are manifold.
