The polling for the Congress presidential election will be held on October 17, 2022, a move by the party to reorganise itself after a long time. Meanwhile, the Bharat Jodo Yatra, the march undertaken by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, is close to completing a month. Through the 3,570-km and 150-day-long foot march publicised as the Congress party’s biggest mass contact programme in recent times, the party hopes to resuscitate its fortunes.
Since 2014, the Indian National Congress (INC) has been facing a sharp decline in seats won in Lok Sabha elections. While it won only 44 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the numbers marginally increased to 52 in 2019. Coincidentally, it has lost power in various States where it was a dominant force previously. It has suffered an erosion in its ranks with party members leaving the party. Its support base has also narrowed as vote share has dropped.
Chart 1 shows the vote share and seats won by the Indian National Congress in the Lok Sabha elections between the first General elections in 1951 after the country attained Independence, and 2019. Between 1951 and 1984, with an exception of 1977, the INC won close to or more than 300 seats consistently, with a vote share higher than 30%. While the vote share decreased between 1989 and 2009, they managed to win more than 100 seats in every general election during this period. In contrast, in 2014 and 2019, the seats won decreased drastically, with a vote share of less than 20%, indicating a decline in the party’s performance as a national party.
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Maps 2A and 2B show how India’s political landscape changed in a span of a decade between 2012 and 2022. In 2012, in 12 out of 28 States in India, the INC was the governing party, while only five States were governed by the BJP. In 2022, the Congress is in power in only two States - Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh - while it was in alliance with the leading party that was in government in Tamil Nadu, Bihar and Jharkhand. In contrast, BJP is in power in 16 States. The Congress held predominance in the Northeast States in 2012. But by 2022, the BJP has managed to wipe out Congress’s presence in power in the region.
Blue indicates States governed by the Congress Party, while orange indicates States governed by the BJP. States, where the Congress and the BJP were in alliance with a leading party that was in government, have been coloured as light blue and light orange respectively. Grey depicts governments formed by other parties
The Congress has not only lost power in many States but there is also a significant reduction in its overall seat tally in the last decade. Chart 3 shows the State-wise number of elected INC legislators in each Assembly. The number of Congress legislators in Andhra Pradesh after the third Assembly election in 1962 stood at 185. In the 13th Assembly elections (2009), the number of Congress legislators was 159. But in the next two State elections (after the bifurcation of the State), the number of seats won came down to 0. In Uttar Pradesh, the number of legislators has decreased from 329 in 1980 (eighth Assembly elections) to one in 2022.
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While many factors play into its decline, the Congress party’s strong resistance against structural changes within it, the crisis in its leadership and its failure to challenge the incumbent government have added to their misfortunes.
The Congress has touched its rock bottom and the attempts to revamp the party through presidential elections besides an outreach - the Bharat Jodo Yatra seem to be clear ways to get out of the morass.
nihalani.j@thehindu.co.in and rebecca.varghese@thehindu.co.in
Source: Election Commission of India, “Individual Incumbency Dataset, 1962-current”. Trivedi Centre for Political Data, Ashoka University
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