News reports and weather experts say that India might be facing its driest August in 100 years. As of Sunday, India had received 7% less rainfall cumulatively this monsoon compared to the long-period average (LPA). This situation is expected to get worse. A recent report in Reuters quotes an India Meteorological Department official saying that India is expected to receive an average of less than 180 mm of rainfall this August, which is the lowest since records began in 1901.
Consequently, the sowing of kharif crops has been hit. Reports show that the Kharif sowing of pulses has come down by 10% compared to last year. Given that retail inflation of pulses accelerated to 13% in July, and especially with the retail inflation of toor dal rising to 34%, a historically low August rainfall may increase food prices further.
In India, it is widely understood that agricultural results are deeply linked to the south-west monsoon rainfall. A recent paper published as a part of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s August bulletin delves into the extent to which the dependency has changed over time and how improvements in irrigation coverage may have played a pivotal role. The paper shows that the south-west monsoon continues to play a major factor for both kharif and rabi crops. However, reliance on monsoon rainfall has reduced in recent times, it argues. Also, the impact has been less pronounced in areas where irrigation coverage has improved.
