News reports and weather experts say that India might be facing its driest August in 100 years. As of Sunday, India had received 7% less rainfall cumulatively this monsoon compared to the long-period average (LPA). This situation is expected to get worse. A recent report in Reuters quotes an India Meteorological Department official saying that India is expected to receive an average of less than 180 mm of rainfall this August, which is the lowest since records began in 1901.
Consequently, the sowing of kharif crops has been hit. Reports show that the Kharif sowing of pulses has come down by 10% compared to last year. Given that retail inflation of pulses accelerated to 13% in July, and especially with the retail inflation of toor dal rising to 34%, a historically low August rainfall may increase food prices further.
In India, it is widely understood that agricultural results are deeply linked to the south-west monsoon rainfall. A recent paper published as a part of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s August bulletin delves into the extent to which the dependency has changed over time and how improvements in irrigation coverage may have played a pivotal role. The paper shows that the south-west monsoon continues to play a major factor for both kharif and rabi crops. However, reliance on monsoon rainfall has reduced in recent times, it argues. Also, the impact has been less pronounced in areas where irrigation coverage has improved.
Chart 1 | The chart plots the rainfall deviation from the LPA (in %) and the change in foodgrain production (in %).
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Despite receiving below-average rainfall in four of the past six years since 2016 (highlighted area in the graph), the production of foodgrains and rice has consistently grown each year. This change in trend, the paper argues, might be due to the States improving their irrigation coverage over time.
Chart 2 | The chart shows the State-wise percentage of net sown area irrigated in 1990 and 2020.
In most of the States, the share of irrigated area has grown considerably in the last two decades. Out of 17 major States, nine had more than half of their net sown area irrigated in 2020, a significant increase from only three States in 1990.
Chart 3 | The chart plots the rainfall deviation from the LPA (in %) and the change in rice production (in %) in less irrigated States: Assam, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Odisha.
The chart plots the data for the last 30 years. Each circle corresponds to figures of a State-year pair (such as 2000-Assam, 1995-Karnataka). In States with lower irrigation levels (where the net irrigated area was less than 40% of the net sown area), rice production typically decreased during periods of insufficient rainfall. As can be seen in the highlighted portion of the chart, except for Assam, in all other States the circles are near the bottom (low production) when they are far to the left (low rainfall).
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Chart 4 | The chart plots the rainfall deviation from the LPA (in %) and the change in foodgrain production (in %) in better irrigated States: Haryana, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal.
In many States, with substantial irrigation coverage (where over 40% of the net sown area is irrigated), rice production often increased even during periods of low rainfall.
The highlighted portion of the graph shows that in States such as Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and Haryana, even during years that recorded extremely poor rainfall (circles on the far left), rice production improved (circles on the top left). This pattern indicates that increased irrigation can, to a degree, offset the adverse effects of insufficient rainfall.
Source: RBI’s August bulletin titled ‘Agriculture’s Dependency on Monsoon Rainfall in India’
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