Historically, across most States, the turnout has been low in urban constituencies compared to rural constituencies. While this was true even during the Karnataka Assembly elections, the turnout has increased considerably over the last 15 years across many urban seats. In 17 out of 33 urban constituencies, the voter turnout in 2023 was higher than what it was in the last three Assembly polls (2018, 2013 and 2008). Moreover, in 12 urban constituencies, the vote share increased by more than 10 percentage points compared to 2008.
The table lists the change in turnout in 2023 compared to 2008, 2013 and 2018 (in percentage points). A negative number shows a decrease in turnout and a positive number shows an increase. For instance, in Shanti Nagar, the turnout increased by 10.3 points in 2023 compared to 2008, 3.4 points in 2023 compared to 2013, and 1.2 points in 2023 compared to 2018.
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In parallel to the rise in urban turnout in Karnataka, three other changes were observed in the voting patterns of city dwellers. First, the effective number of parties competing in urban seats decreased from three to two over the last decade. Although the total number of parties competing for a seat is determined by the nominations submitted, the “effective number of parties” within a constituency is based on the votes they obtain. Based on their vote shares, some parties are labelled as parties that competed “effectively.”
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More precisely, urban voters moved away from Janata Dal (Secular) and increasingly preferred either the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the Congress, turning the seats into bipolar contests. Independent candidates and those belonging to smaller regional parties also met with a similar fate. For instance, in the Padmanabha Nagar seat, the JD(S)’s vote share declined by 21 points compared to 2008, 16 points compared to 2013, and 23 points compared to 2008. In fact, in 21 of the 33 urban seats in Karnataka, the JD(S)’s vote share in 2023 was the lowest compared to 2008, 2013 and 2018, and by a high margin.
Second, there was a consequent rise in the votes polled for the BJP and the Congress. For instance, in Mahalakshmi Layout, where the JD(S) secured about 44% and 55% of the votes in 2013 and 2018, respectively, the party ended up with just 6% of the votes in 2023. Most of the votes went to the BJP. In Chamrajpet, the JD(S) secured 48% and 52% of the votes in 2008 and 2013, respectively, but only 15% of the votes in 2023. Here, most of the votes went to the Congress.
Third, while the Congress has enjoyed a fair share of success with bipolarity becoming common in urban seats over the years, as seen in Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and other States, bipolar contests have mostly favoured the BJP. This was true in the case of the 2023 Karnataka polls too. Between 2018 and 2023, the BJP’s vote share increased by 10 points or more in seven of the 33 urban seats compared to four for the Congress. Between 2013 and 2023, the BJP’s vote share increased by 10 points or more in 23 of the 33 urban seats compared to nine for the Congress. Between 2008 and 2023, the vote shares increased by 10 points or more in nine seats and 10 seats for the BJP and Congress, respectively.
So, not only has the BJP managed to mobilise its core support base — the urban voters — to the voting centres, but also gained from the increasingly bipolar nature of the elections in urban areas. The Congress has also benefited to an extent from this shift in voting pattern.
vignesh.r@thehindu.co.in, nihalani.j@thehindu.co.in
Source: Political Career Tracker for candidates in Indian National and State Assembly Elections, Trivedi Centre for Political Data, Ashoka University
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