In this week’s Data Dump, the Cleveland Browns are quickly rising through the ranks of the NFL after delivering a 27-0 win against the Arizona Cardinals. While the Browns are 5-3 at the halfway point of their season, the statistical analysis didn’t agree that the Browns were worthy of their record.
The return of Deshaun Watson propelled the Browns’ offense from being one of the worst in the league to a subpar offense after one game. It sounds small, but the improvement was a step in the right direction for models that assume offenses are far more important than defenses. The Browns are now on the doorstep of the upper echelon of the league according to most metrics. A few more games like Sunday from Watson and the Browns will quickly advance to the top of the NFL with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Ravens.
Sunday’s matchup between the Browns and the Ravens will pit the two top defenses in the NFL against each other. The Browns will be looking for revenge after losing their first game after rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson was named the starter the morning of the game due to the aforementioned Watson injury. The teams will be extremely motivated to prove which team is not only the best in the AFC North but among the entire league.
An analytical look back at the Cardinals game.
The Cleveland Browns defense absolutely shut down the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals’ offense is in the zero percentile in EPA and yards per play. The Browns’ offense performed well through the passing game but left more to be desired in their run game. It was apparent that the Browns and Cardinals were focused more on avoiding injuries near the end of the game.
NFL Week 9 – Advanced Stats Review
Cleveland Browns 27 – Arizona Cardinals 0 pic.twitter.com/UdWr4MfrHZ
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) November 6, 2023
How bad did the Browns beat the Cardinals?
According to the net success rates, it removes the volatility from turnovers and other less predictable aspects of the game, the Cleveland Browns trounced the Cardinals, but not to the same level as the Raiders and Ravens.
Did We Really Get Beat That Bad? (NFL Edition)
Week 9 Net Success RatesYes Seahawks/Giants/Cardinals, you did get beat that bad pic.twitter.com/apQ5TMG3Vb
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) November 9, 2023
Browns rise to tier 3
The Cleveland Browns rose from tier 4 to tier 3 as the offense started to gain steam with Watson as the conductor. The Browns were in tier 5 just two weeks ago. The team is in a perfect position to continue climbing the ranks as the offense continues to perform well.
~~ NFL Team Tiers 9 Weeks In ~~
2012 Super Bowl rematch who says no? pic.twitter.com/J6emWNcr43
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 7, 2023
Offensive and Defensive Series Results
The team’s success continues to be a tale of two teams. The offense continues to be among the worst in the league at getting first downs. Meanwhile, the Browns’ defense is historically great.
How consistent each defense is at preventing the opponent from moving the chains
The Browns have been insanely lucky with opposing QBs (sorry Clayton Tune) so grain of salt here, but still very impressive pic.twitter.com/2ZZwp3quQi
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 7, 2023
How are the Browns doing on first and second down?
The Browns’ offense is performing near the bottom of the league on 1st and 2nd down. The team has struggled to run the ball due to all of the injuries to the offensive line and running backs. The passing game is growing more and more efficient on early downs. Watson will help the Browns become more efficient on early downs.
Rushing and passing efficiency on early downs
CJ Stroud! pic.twitter.com/muifwBRV2N
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 7, 2023
Browns remain aggressive on 4th down
The Cleveland Browns have remained aggressive on fourth down this season in spite of all the backup quarterback play. Under Stefanski, the Browns have been one of the most aggressive teams in the league on 4th down but have dropped toward the middle of the league this season. It will be interesting to see if Stefanski gets more aggressive with Watson back at the helm, or if he relies more on kicker Dustin Hopkins.
Death, taxes, Eagles/Lions not being scared to go for it pic.twitter.com/jCjnMCwQfJ
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 7, 2023
How are the offensive and defensive lines doing?
This is my favorite piece of data on any given week. The trench measure ties the GPS measurements that fuel ESPN’s rankings with the subjective grades of Pro Football Focus. The Browns’ defense has been dominant in both the pass and the run game according to ESPN, PFF, and anyone else with eyes. The offense on the other hand has struggled on run blocks while remaining upright in the passing game.
All trench measures from PFF and ESPN pic.twitter.com/6g72FW0LnZ
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 7, 2023
The Browns offensive line is top 10 in pass blocking
The Browns’ offensive line is ranked near the top of the league in true pass-blocking sets. The Browns will need to find an appropriate replacement for Jed Wills Jr. who has been one of the team’s best pass blockers this season.
Pass protection grades of offensive linemen in True Pass Sets (excludes plays with less than 4 rushers, play action, screens, short dropbacks and time-to-throws under 2 seconds) pic.twitter.com/Y3lp1dPrbm
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 7, 2023
QB Production and Grades
This chart marries a quarterback’s production to their PFF grade. Deshaun Watson had an excellent game leading to his readmission to the QB chart. The quarterback will look to break from of the middle pack over the month.
QB grade and efficiency through week 9.
Highest-graded QBs in week 9 alone:
1 (tie): Burrow
2 (tie): Stroud
3: Love
4: Dobbs (!)
5: J.AllenLowest in week 9:
25: Heinicke
26: Levis
27: D.Jones
28: B.Young
29: C.Tune pic.twitter.com/qZgAWG65mG— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 7, 2023
Gambling Market Derived team tiers
The rankings below come from the gambling market and are not based on team production. It’s an interesting model to gauge the perception around teams. The Browns’ chance at winning the Super Bowl is “Possibly Frisky” according to the betting market.
Objective NFL Power Rankings Through Week 9
— The Bengals are BACK
— The Bills are the lowest they've been in a loooong time
— Grain of salt for the QB switching teams (LA, ARI) pic.twitter.com/OpXJJ4TNbk— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 8, 2023
Sumer Sports Playoff Predictions
The Cleveland Browns playoff probabilities have slightly increased in Sumer Sports simulations. The Browns are currently in the hunt for the wild card spot with fellow AFC North teams as well as the Buffalo Bills.
Updated Playoff Probabilities – Before MNF pic.twitter.com/CaDcaRbZ6M
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) November 6, 2023
