Whatever happens over the next five months, it’s safe to say that Darwin Nunez’ first season with Liverpool will have been very memorable. There have already been significant highs and lows and no doubt more lie in wait.
While his first major challenge was a disciplinary one, following his red card against Crystal Palace, his recent difficulties have come with his finishing. The Uruguayan has had nine Opta-defined clear-cut chances since domestic football resumed following the World Cup, and he has squandered every single one.
The odds of that occurring are miniscule, yet his luck is very much out. Nunez’s fine finish when only marginally offside at Brentford is evidence enough of that. The fact he repeatedly has such high value scoring opportunities is undoubtedly positive, though there are a couple of aspects of his chance quality which are of concern.
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This becomes apparent when comparing Nunez’ underlying numbers this season with those he posted in his final campaign with Benfica. A driblab article has shown that many of them have improved since he moved to England, which is a good sign.
The 23-year-old is retaining the ball better, is more efficient in the air and is putting a higher proportion of shots on target. He’s also accumulating more expected goals per 90 minutes on the driblab model, which sounds good but there’s a fly in this particular ointment.
Darwin’s shot numbers have gone through the roof and have increased slightly further since that article was written last month. Per FBRef, he is averaging 5.68 shots per 90, the most of any player in Europe’s top five leagues. Only one player (Ansu Fati) is even within one effort per match of Nunez, he’s truly out on his own.
This means his shot rate has increased by a scarcely credible 54 per cent on the 3.69 he averaged in the Primeira Liga with Benfica last season. The issue is that his xG number has not risen by anywhere near as much (around 10 per cent), highlighting the problem that the average value of his chances has decreased sharply.
Nunez’s non-penalty xG per shot has dropped from 0.19 to 0.13, a fall of about a third. He might be the top man in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain for shots in 2022/23, but he only ranks joint-180th at present for average chance quality. Even though his recent slump in front of goal has been extreme, these findings help to explain why he has not scored as often irrespective of that.
There’s one other finding in the driblab study which is particularly eye opening, with respect to how heavily involved Nunez has been in Liverpool’s attacking. According to the research, “Liverpool are focusing their play in such a way that Darwin generates 56.2% of the xG produced in [open] play by Liverpool, when at Benfica he was only responsible for 36%.”
That is a huge leap but it’s hard to put into context. Thankfully they offer a couple of examples, noting that Erling Haaland is responsible for 38 per cent of his team’s open play expected goals, while Lionel Messi averaged 35 per cent at Barcelona. More pertinently, they also note that for each of the previous four seasons the trio of Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah were always at somewhere between 23 and 32 per cent each, giving them a fairly even split of responsibility. What is being asked of Nunez in 2022/23 is blowing these figures out of the water.
There have been some extreme examples too. Darwin was the shooter for 77 per cent of Liverpool’s open play xG while he was on the pitch at Fulham, and 72 per cent at Arsenal. He scored in both matches but it’s clear few of his colleagues were likely to contribute unless a set piece was involved.
Hopefully the addition of Cody Gakpo will alleviate some of the burden Nunez is carrying. Jurgen Klopp may need to deploy a tactical tweak to share the chances around a bit more too. When Darwin is already saddled with a club record price tag and has a goal drought to end, having to also be responsible for over half of Liverpool’s open play attacking could be a bridge too far.
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