The 59th parliament of Victoria has been anything but boring. In the past two years there’s been a leadership spill, a finding of branch stacking, a catastrophic fall down slippery steps, a drunken car crash, dozens of protests, Covid-19 outbreaks, resignations, defections, a visit from a lamb in a diaper and a resident fox – and that’s without mentioning the work that goes on inside the building.
Having wrapped up the final sitting week on Wednesday – dumping 52 documents on the way out, including a scathing auditor general report on the suburban rail loop – Daniel Andrews will now begin campaigning for a third term in office.
A third term is a rarity in modern politics but all recent polls show Andrews is on track to do just that on 26 November. An ongoing health crisis, rising cost-of-living pressures, ballooning debt and questions surrounding the economic value and transparency of two of his landmark infrastructure projects have put a dent in his popularity, but not enough to make the Coalition seem like an attractive alternative.
It’s a strong position from which to start an election campaign, but one which carries risks. Namely, the risk of repeating a mistake made by federal Labor at the May election and taking safe electorates for granted.
Andrews would be wise to heed the valedictory words delivered by departing Labor MPs in parliament this week.
Among them was the member for Broadmeadows, Frank McGuire, who was ousted from his seat following the national takeover of the Victorian branch of the Labor party in the wake of the branch-stacking scandal in 2020.
“The ALP national executive’s intervention into preselections for Victoria’s upcoming election was never meant to target a sitting MP like me who had nothing to do with branch stacking or the red shirts controversy,” he told parliament on Tuesday.
McGuire said he was disendorsed because he had no factional allegiances – his seat was “too valuable in the eyes of factional powerbrokers not to control in a numbers game with a winner-takes-all sense of entitlement”.
“As the first person raised in Broadmeadows to represent this community in the Victorian parliament, I felt obliged to confront the so-called faceless men and women, telling them I joined a cause, not a gang, and reminding them Australia’s oldest political party was founded to fight for the powerless and the poor, too often done over in secret deals behind closed doors,” he said.
The Kororoit MP, Marlene Kairouz, though found to have been involved in the branch-stacking scheme, also made a valid point about the importance of living in the electorate you represent.
The Labor candidate replacing her, as well as many other disendorsed MPs, have been criticised for being parachuted into their seats.
“I don’t believe you can best represent the electorate unless you live in the community,” she said. “This is something I believe the Labor party can do better on.
“The reason I immediately moved into the area [when elected] is because I felt that I would be disrespected my constituency if I didn’t. So my message to all sections of the Labor party is listen to those communities. Don’t take them for granted. And don’t leave them behind because they will leave you behind.”
The Preston MP, Robin Scott, a factional ally of Kairouz, referred to research that claimed there was a 30-year difference in life expectancy between different parts of Victoria.
“If we do not address inequality, I believe the traditional system of politics in which we reside will die,” he said. “We cannot expect those who have been left behind, those [who] are outsiders to support the status quo.
Labor holds Broadmeadows on a margin of 25.2%, Kororoit on 25.3% and Preston on 21.3%. Such high margins means they are unlikely to receive much attention during the campaign, despite being among the areas hardest hit by both the adverse health and economic impacts of the pandemic.
It’s no wonder their outgoing representatives fear voters will abandon the party.
