It's not always the loudest stories that make the biggest impact, and a quiet bit of news dropped last week that could be a game changer for the future of television and streaming.
Disney announced that "Dancing With the Stars" is headed to its streaming service, Disney+, beginning this fall, ending the celebrity ballroom dancing competition's 16-year run at ABC. It marks a big shakeup in the world of network TV programming and presents a major test for the streaming landscape going forward.
Say what you will about it and over-the-top judge Bruno Tonioli (we don't talk about Bruno, no no no), but "Dancing With the Stars" has been a staple at ABC since it launched in summer 2005. Imported from overseas, as successful American reality shows often are (see also "Survivor," "Big Brother," "American Idol," etc.), it has lasted 30 seasons and has survived subpar dance routines from David Hasselhoff and Master P.
Once a ratings smash, pulling down 24 million viewers for its 10th season premiere (that edition featured Pamela Anderson, Kate Gosselin, Erin Andrews and Buzz Aldrin, likely the first and last time those four were ever in a room together), viewership has fallen in recent years, as has been a trend across network TV.
The most recent season, the finale of which saw NBA star Iman Shumpert taking on JoJo Siwa for the Mirrorball trophy, averaged 4.9 million viewers weekly, down from 6.1 million the previous year, and off more than half from the 10.5 million who tuned in weekly five years ago.
So perhaps the time is right for a change. And depending on how the experiment goes, it may not be long before your favorite network TV show also bounces to a streaming service.
Ah yes, streaming services, those programming hubs we all ditched our cable for which now add up to more than our monthly cable bill. You've probably got Netflix because you needed to watch "Tiger King" and if you've got kids or you're into "Moon Knight" (somebody out there has to be into "Moon Knight," right?) you probably have Disney+. But what else?
You need Apple TV+ to watch "Severance" and this year's best picture winner "CODA." Hulu has a number of quality shows starring Elle Fanning. HBO Max gave you a slew of first-run movies at home last year at a time when no one wanted to go to theaters because of COVID. Amazon Prime Video is still trying to figure out what it is. And then there's Paramount+, Peacock, CBS All Access, Shudder, Discovery+, ESPN+, Corncob TV, Acorn TV, Britbox, AMC+, the Criterion Channel and more. (One of those is fake, I'll leave it to you to figure out which one.)
Most or all of these services specialize in On Demand viewing, but that is starting to shift. Beginning in the fall, the NFL is moving its "Thursday Night Football" to Amazon Prime Video, and now "Dancing With the Stars" won't be far behind on Disney+. This shift to live viewing is an important test for the streamers, to find out if audiences will sit down to watch streaming services live the same way they will regular television.
It's also a test of the loyalty of the "Dancing With the Stars" audience. Sure, they'll watch Ginger Zee do the Viennese waltz when it's free on network TV, but are they willing to pay for it? And what "Dancing With the Stars" superfans can they convert into new Disney+ subscribers?
If it flops, "Dancing" can always move back to television. But if it finds its audience on Disney+, what shows could follow? On the one hand, a show like "Big Brother" eats up three hours of summer programming every week on CBS, and that's three hours the network doesn't have to worry about otherwise filling. On the other hand, is there a better use of those three hours, and wouldn't the loyal "Big Brother" audience help bolster the CBS All Access service?
And what about "American Idol" and "The Voice?" Would CBS dare port "Survivor" over to streaming? Disney+ is reportedly working out a lower tier for subscribers that will include ads. And if the dollars make sense, it's not hard to see where this is headed.
There's a future where the Oscars could one day be on a streaming service. Whether or not that happens during Will Smith's ban remains to be seen, but you have to start somewhere, and "Dancing With the Stars" seems like as good a first step as any. Or a two-step, if you will.
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