Twenty colts, including a £75,000 supplementary entry and 10 trained in Ireland, remain in the running for the 2024 Derby at Epsom on Saturday after Monday’s five-day declaration stage, and Aidan O’Brien’s City Of Troy, beaten at odds-on in the 2,000 Guineas earlier this month, still heads the betting at about 9-4. The memory of the favourite’s dismal showing at Newmarket, however, may persuade many backers to hunt for a viable each-way alternative, and the good news for value-seekers is that there will be a long list of dark horses and live outsiders to consider.
There have been many Derbys in the past that revolved around one horse and one performance, but the performance in question has tended to be an impressive success, in the Guineas or one of the traditional Epsom trials. To back the favourite for the 2024 edition, however, punters need to forgive a blowout, which for betting purposes at least should make for a fascinating contest.
City Of Troy was an 8-1 shot for the Derby after finishing ninth of 11 at Newmarket earlier this month, and while the Godolphin operation in particular has suffered some miserable luck with its leading Classic contenders, the fact that O’Brien’s colt is about 9-4 owes as much to his trainer’s extraordinary record, at Epsom and elsewhere, over the last 20 years as it does to his unbeaten record as a juvenile.
If the nine-time winner of the foremost Classic is right when he says that City Of Troy could be the most talented contender he has ever sent to Epsom, his backers will feel that 9-4 is a perfectly acceptable price for a colt who is still rated 5lb clear by Timeform on his two-year-old form.
Beverley
1.40 Unthinkable
2.10 Powdering
2.40 Puella Law
3.10 She’s Got Bottle
3.40 Scarriff
4.10 Cloudy Rose
4.40 Jamih
5.15 Opal Storm
Newton Abbot
2.28 Walk Of The Roses
2.58 Juniper
3.28 Coconut Twist
3.58 Monjules
4.28 Phoenix Way
5.03 Our Dylan
Hamilton Park
2.50 Milford
3.20 Ebony Maw
3.50 Contacto
4.20 Catherine Chroi
4.50 Arkenstaar (nb)
5.20 We Still Believe (nap)
Cartmel
5.50 Haarar
6.20 Toscan Genius
6.50 Imperial Data
7.20 Ilikedwayurthinkin
7.50 Augharue
8.20 Dreal Deal
8.50 Gaboriot
Kempton Park
5.42 Embarked
6.12 Bint Havana Gold
6.42 Cervaro Della Sala
7.12 Change Sings
7.42 Brindavan
8.12 Bigger Than Giga
8.42 Gold Aura
Supporters of the favourite can also point to last year’s race, when Auguste Rodin, the beaten favourite in the Guineas, bounced back from his Newmarket flop to beat King Of Steel, the subsequent Champion Stakes winner, by half a length.
The difference, though, is that Auguste Rodin ran in the Guineas like a horse who was crying out for middle distances. City Of Troy was beaten just after halfway, and subsequent attempts to explain his poor showing have not been entirely convincing. He also accounts for around 30% of the market. Rule him out and, from a betting perspective, it is all up for grabs.
It is undeniably a little disappointing for the race that Economics, the easy winner of the Dante Stakes at York this month, has not been supplemented – Tom Clover’s Tabletalk was the only late entry on Monday – but Ambiente Friendly, in the colours of the owner-breeder Bill Gredley that older punters will recall aboard User Friendly in the 1992 Oaks, will be a solid second-favourite on the basis of his win in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Los Angeles, the winner of Leopardstown’s Derby Trial, is a strong second-string for O’Brien, too.
For many punters, though, the urge to find an each-way alternative to City Of Troy at a working person’s price is likely to prove irresistible, and there is a long list of possibilities vying to become the latest colt to hit the frame at huge odds.
The last four runnings of the Derby have seen placed horses at 150-1, 66-1 and 50-1 twice – ie filling four of the eight places available – as well as a 25-1 winner, Serpentine, in the strange Covid season in 2020.
All four were bred to appreciate a mile and a half and were trying the trip for the first time, and Dancing Gemini, who is by Camelot, the 2012 winner, out of a mare by Australia, the winner two years later, very much fits that profile this time around, although he is no bigger than 12-1 after a fast-finishing, and somewhat unfortunate, second-place finish in the French 2,000 Guineas last time out.
With one start and one win, at Newbury last month, Richard Hannon’s Voyage, a son of the 2015 Derby winner, Golden Horn, is as unexposed as a Derby dark horse ever gets, while the 40-1 shot Dallas Star, in the purple colours of Kia Joorabchian’s Amo Racing, will arrive at Epsom direct from a win in the Ballysax Stakes in April – just as Harzand did before his Derby victory in 2016.
Lingfield 2.20 Abraaj 2.50 Smart Deal 3.25 Thecoffeepoddotco 4.00 Call Me The Breeze 4.30 Dorney Lake 5.00 Musical Diva
Ffos Las 2.28 Guard Duty 3.00 Exmoor Forest 3.35 The Gypsy Davey 4.08 Thatza Dazzler 4.40 Jasmin De Grugy 5.10 Bridget Mary
Ripon 2.40 Substitute 3.15 Chilled Out 3.50 Medician Star 4.20 Cockalorum (nb) 4.50 La La Lucrative (nap) 5.25 Run This Way
Warwick 6.10 Stiletto 6.40 Onlyamatteroftime 7.10 Blow Your Horn 7.40 Time For A Pint 8.10 Get Sky High 8.40 Over Milk Wood
Carlisle 5.55 Apache Star 6.25 Larchill Lass 6.55 It Ain’t Two 7.25 Blufferonthebus 7.55 Haya 8.25 Mambha 8.55 Vampire Slayer
Perhaps this might even be the year when the Blue Riband Trial over 10 furlongs at the April meeting highlights the Derby winner for the first time since 1937.
Bellum Justum handled the track well on the way to a narrow win in this year’s Blue Riband and as Alistair Donald, racing manager for his owners, King Power Racing, pointed out on Monday: “This is the year to take a chance with a horse like him, as there are question marks over so many of the runners. It’s a very interesting Derby.”
