Now that Ulster have played - and lost to - both of last year's finalists, Dan McFarland predicts that Leinster will get the better of it this time if they meet La La Rochelle in this season's decider.
It was Ronan O'Gara's side that prevailed in Marseille last May, clinching a first ever Champions Cup title in the dying moments, and the two European heavyweights are on a collision course to meet again in the final at the Aviva Stadium on May 20.
Ulster lost twice to La Rochelle in this season's pool stages but, after Saturday's last 16 defeat to Leinster on Lansdowne Road, head coach McFarland said: "It’s got to be Leinster, hasn’t it?
READ MORE: Ronan O’Gara celebrates La Rochelle’s shock last-gasp Champions Cup triumph
"They’ve just won the Grand Slam - sorry, 14 of them just literally won the Grand Slam.
"They’re a team that learns as well. But La Rochelle are a good team too. Jeez, I don’t know - I think Leinster. I’m going to put my money on Leinster.
"Well, sorry, I’m not allowed to but if I was I would put money on Leinster!".
Ulster beat Leinster twice last season but, when it really matters, they keep coming up short against their provincial rivals - be it the 2012 final at Twickenham, the 2019 quarter-final in Dublin, the 2020 PRO14 final and more.
Asked if it is demoralising, McFarland replied: “It’s challenging.
"It is what it is, I can’t change the demographics. They’ve just got way more rugby players, way more earning potential in terms of the money.
"Nothing changes that. It would be like taking any other job and saying ‘Oh God, I’m always demoralised because so-and-so has got more money'.
"You just get on with the job, don’t you? You believe in what you’re doing and you look to get the best out of yourself.
"I genuinely believe that when we play well we can cause Leinster enough trouble so that we can beat them, and that’s the way we’ll go about our business.”
McFarland believes that Leinster have progressed in the four years since that tight last eight meeting - but he insists that Ulster have too.
"Leinster’s players play at a very high level now, obviously we know that from the last two months," he said, referring to the Six Nations.
"And we’ve got a lot of young guys who have come through from that team back in 2019 who are playing at a high level now. Definitely."
McFarland recalls how Ulster followed up that quarter-final loss with a poor performance in a URC play-off defeat to Glasgow.
Last year, Ulster followed up their heartbreaking Champions Cup quarter-final loss to Toulouse by going down to Munster in the URC a week later.
This time around he has an extra week to rally the troops, while monitoring Tom Stewart (dislocated finger) and Billy Burns (HIA). But he is also certain that his side are much more competitive now across the board.
“We went to the Stormers last year, who won the competition, in the semi-final and lost in the 85th minute," he said.
“So, we’re right up there with the teams that are fighting and winning silverware, so as a team we should have confidence that we’re able to do that. But we have to be at our best to do it.
"Leinster were too good for us and fair play to them. We’ll take stock of that and we’ll move forward to playing the Dragons and Edinburgh.”
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