The Victorian federal seat of Dunkley will head for a by-election sometime next year after the death of sitting Labor MP Peta Murphy.
It’s difficult to say who might be preselected to represent Labor — the party is still reeling from Murphy’s death on December 4.
“I think everyone is being quite respectful, certainly, in the wake of her passing — it would be a bad look for anybody to start talking about this,” one local Labor source told Crikey.
Rumours have been flying around that former Victorian premier Daniel Andrews could sign up for preselection, the source said, but that’s far from a certainty. Efforts by Crikey to reach Andrews through his former parliamentary staff were unsuccessful.
On the Liberal side, the Mayor of Frankston Nathan Conroy has been floated as a possible contender.
The Herald Sun reported in its Monday print edition that Conroy “heads a group of Liberal contenders” that also includes former state MP Donna Hope and former state Parliament candidate Bec Buchanan.
Nominations for the Liberal preselection are understood to be closing on Thursday.
Conroy declined to confirm or deny the Herald Sun report when reached by Crikey, saying only that he’d consider his options.
Liberal Party rules say members must not talk publicly about preselection matters.
Murphy had been diagnosed with breast cancer more than a decade ago, and the illness returned in 2019, shortly before she was sworn in as the MP for Dunkley.
The 50-year-old was working in Parliament until the week before her death, and party figures said the speed at which her health declined was shocking.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described Murphy as a “cherished member of our Labor family” during a speech at her funeral last Friday.
“There are some members of Parliament whose contribution earns the grudging respect of the chamber,” he said.
“There are others — rarer still — who win genuine admiration and real affection across the political spectrum. Peta Murphy was one of those.”
Murphy’s immediate family said in a public statement that she spent her final days surrounded by family at home and asked for their privacy to be respected.
Speaker of the House Milton Dick will consult with the Australian Electoral Commission and issue a writ for the by-election, likely early next year. His office declined to comment.
Pollster and Redbridge Group chief executive Kos Samaras told Crikey the government’s chances of retaining Dunkley would depend on whether or not the local community felt like sending Labor a message of protest.
“By-elections are largely about casting protest votes — because the outcome is not going to determine who’s in government, it’s a matter of, ‘do I send the government a message or not?’” he said.
The seat was held by Labor in the early 1980s. The Liberals won Dunkley in 1990, lost it in 1993, and then took it back in 1996 and held it until 2019, when Murphy won it for Labor on a 2.7% margin, which she increased to 6.3% in 2022.
Samaras said the electorate has three “epicentres”: the lower-to-middle income “mortgage belt” of Carrum Downs; Frankston; and Mt Eliza, which was a Liberal stronghold in the last election.
He said Labor’s strong support in state Parliament would be a boon for the party in the by-election.
“Labor’s brand is much stronger on a state level than it is at a federal level, and if it has any impact, it will be a positive one for Labor,” he said.
Correction: A previous version of this article said that Peta Murphy won Dunkley on a 6.3% margin in 2019. That was wrong — the 2019 margin was 2.7%, increasing to 6.3% in the 2022 election.
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