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The National (Scotland)
The National (Scotland)
National
[email protected] | Alasdair Ferguson

Damming climate report on coming El Nino suppressed under Keir Starmer shared by UK

Greenhouse gases and an El Nino oceanic warming event will likely push global temperatures to record levels (Owen Humphreys/PA)

A DAMMING report that shows the climate emergency and the coming El Niño threaten countries around the world’s national security, which was suppressed by Keir Starmer, has been shared by the UK.

The UK’s Foreign Secretary, Ed Miliband, presented a report by the UK's spy chiefs to the foreign ministers of the EU and other countries on Wednesday evening, warning that the global collapse of natural systems would lead to conflict, migration and food shortages.

Miliband warned foreign ministers at the private meeting during the UN General Assembly in New York that the coming El Niño would test the world’s food systems to extreme levels that have never been seen before, according to The Guardian.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern, but this year’s unusually strong event is occurring on a planet already warmed by human-caused climate change, increasing the risks from extreme heat.

Heatwaves and droughts over the consecutive years that have led to poor harvests, food scarcity and price inflation have already signalled to governments what the world is going to face more routinely and that it must be dealt with at the highest levels.

“We face an El Niño that is already set to be the most intense in living memory,” Miliband said.

“This will intensify climate shocks that compound and cascade across borders, threatening food and water security, displacing communities, putting pressure on markets and scarring economies.”

Miliband went on to present research that found the collapse of global ecosystems, such as in the Amazon and Congo rainforests, which have been driven by the climate crisis, would have a knock-on effect on national security globally.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband leaves the Millbank Studios in Westminster, after appearing on the morning news rounds. Picture date: Wednesday September 9, 2026. PA Photo. Mr Miliband has rejected the suggestion he has put British Jews at risk by announcing sanctions on illegal West Bank settlements which will see a ban on imports from illegal settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and sanctions on individuals and firms providing services to settlers. Photo credit should read: James Manning/PA Wire
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband (Image: James Manning / PA)

Climate change and nature loss have never been issues for climate and environment ministers alone,” he said.

“They are defining challenges for our citizens, our economies, our foreign policy and our national security.”

The Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) report was due to be published last October.

However, it was suppressed on the eve of its publication by Downing Street, with a redacted version then issued in January under the Freedom of Information Act.

The UK has announced a package of support to address the growing security risks posed by climate change and nature loss, which it said will benefit millions of people around the world by helping to protect critical ecosystems, including forests in the Amazon and Congo Basin.

Miliband announced £330 million from the UK for the Global Environment Facility that will aim to support sustainable agriculture and fishing, in a bid to ensure some of the world’s most vulnerable people have access to food as well as clean water.

The funding also aims to reduce environmental degradation, including desertification and deforestation, and strengthen resilience to droughts and flooding.

On Wednesday night, Miliband said: “The countries fit for the future will be those that see climate and nature as intrinsic to economic and national security. Countries that anticipate risks and invest in resilience before crises hit.

“Countries that seize the incredible opportunities the clean energy transition presents. Countries that don’t just see the connections but act on them.”

This year’s powerful El Niño and the record global heat it is driving, along with severe droughts, wildfires and shrinking water supplies, could lead to nearly half a million more deaths worldwide by the end of February, according to a new research report.

The grim warning by the University of Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab says that as many as 451,000 more heat-related deaths between June and the end of February could be attributed to El Niño, compared with heat deaths expected in a typical year.

The name El Nino is widely used to describe the warming of sea surface temperature that occurs every few years (Alamy/PA)

The heaviest toll, the group says, is expected in poorer countries, already struggling with food insecurity and high energy costs, partly due to climate change and the fallout of the war in Iran.

Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the group and the study’s co-author, said the heat danger will probably persist beyond February – even though this El Niño is expected to end by then.

The fallout of the weather phenomenon could be felt well into next summer, he added.

The research, he said, shows that heat is most dangerous in places that are already hot and relatively poor.

“If you’re already in a hot place, the extra couple of degrees are going to be much more dangerous,” he said.

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