LAS VEGAS – If the first two games of the Western Conference final are any indication, the margin between winning and losing is as thin as an ice skate’s blade. That hasn’t proven to be in the Dallas Stars’ favor this season and it wasn’t on Sunday afternoon.
Take the 72 seconds of overtime in Vegas’ 3-2 win over the Dallas Stars in Game 2, for example.
The Golden Knights had the last laugh, but it was Dallas that actually had the first chance to win. Veteran Joe Pavelski found rookie Wyatt Johnston right in front of the net just 28 seconds into overtime, but his shot was saved by Vegas goalie Adin Hill.
Johnston’s shot had an expected goal rating of 0.14, according to Natural Stat Trick. For comparison: that was a vastly higher expected goal rating Vegas forward Shea Theodore’s shot on goal 42 seconds later (0.02), which rebounded off Oettinger straight to Chandler Stephenson, who scored easily to give the Stars a 2-0 series lead.
Vegas had an odd-man rush on that goal because they took advantage of a Dallas line change just seconds before. Dallas had done a great job clearing pucks around the net all game, but in that instance, Stephenson was alone.
“Definitely in overtime for sure,” Stars head coach Pete DeBoer said when asked if his line changes have not been as smooth in this series. “Borderline change, but it’s a game of mistakes. They make a mistake and leave Johnston wide open in front of the net, too, they just stuck it in.”
Essentially, Vegas made a play when it needed to, and Dallas didn’t. That played out in a key moment of regulation also.
The Stars finished Sunday’s game with a better expected goal rating than Vegas despite losing. Dallas fixed some mistakes it had in Game 1, specifically on defense. Vegas had only 10 shots on goal through nearly the first 45 minutes of Game 2.
“We didn’t execute well enough early on and I think there was a little level of frustration in the second period,” Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy said. “They did a good job, but then you’re never out of the game. It’s only one goal.”
But Vegas found a rhythm, recording 12 shots on goal the rest of the third period. One of those goals came when Stars defenseman Ryan Suter had a turnover on a pass he sent from behind his own net to Vegas forward Ivan Barbashev, who was waiting on the sideboard. Barbashev found Jack Eichel, who sent a backhanded pass to Jonathan Marchessault for the game-tying goal. Suter was turned around and lost Marchessault.
“I made a mistake at the end and it ended up in the back of the net,” said Suter, who has a +/- of minus-5 the last two series.
When asked about the goal, DeBoer said, “I’m not going to start assigning blame. We played a hell of a game tonight. There were mistakes made and they cashed in. They made a really good play. Jack Eichel makes a world-class pass.”
When the margins are thin, that can be the difference. And so far this season, a thin margin hasn’t worked in the Stars’ favor. They are now 15-23 in games decided by one goal. That includes shootout losses and overtime defeats. The Stars are now 0-4 in overtime this postseason.
