Doom seemed inevitable when Dak Prescott broke the thumb on his throwing hand against the Buccaneers in the Cowboys’ season opener.
The prolific passer and two-time Pro Bowler was responsible for so much in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s scheme that it was hard to imagine Dallas staying afloat long enough for Prescott to get healthy and elevate his team again.
Roughly six weeks later, after the 4-2 Cowboys exceeded all expectations without their talisman and with Prescott set to practice full-go for the first time since early September — Dallas hasn’t been in this advantageous of a position in a long time. In a beyond-weak NFC, with perhaps only the rival Eagles and Giants standing in their way, Prescott’s comeback makes the resilient Cowboys a bona fide Super Bowl heavyweight. The path to glory hasn’t been this traffic-free for Dallas since Troy Aikman was still launching bombs for Michael Irvin downfield.
No disrespect to Cooper Rush, who filled in admirably and made more than enough plays as a fill-in game manager, but the Cowboys are Prescott’s team. Everything they do is built around his mobility, his impeccable pocket presence, and his general stellar accuracy.
He is the straw that stirs Big D’s drink, and he’s the person who pours in the sugary mix at the same time. Rush is an adequate backup, but he completed just 90 passes for 1,020 yards in six games. Dallas wasn’t asking Rush to conduct their steam engine; they just wanted him not to break it. By contrast, Prescott is a perennial 4,000-plus-yard passer who was set to build on the arguable best season of his career by almost every relevant metric before he broke his thumb.
You know, the play of a top-10 quarterback:
Dak Prescott's final 2021 regular season ranks, efficiency/accuracy metrics:
EFF
Net yds/att: #6
ANY/A: #7
Rating: #3
QBR: #9
EPA/play: #11
Success rate: #10ACCURACY
CPOE: #9
CPAE: #6NEG PLAYS
INT%: #8
Sack%: #6STYLE
Intended air yds: #16
Comp air yds: #13
TTT: #12— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 12, 2022
Aside from the Cowboys’ front office, no one should be happier about having their star quarterback back in the fold than CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott, and Tony Pollard.
The Cowboys’ weapons have done their part to support their backup quarterback somewhat, but there are only so many tricks you can help a magician with who can only hide a coin behind the defense’s ear from time to time. There were a lot of glaring issues and alarming numbers behind the Rush-led Dallas offense, but having the NFL’s 23rd-ranked scoring attack (18.3 points per game) encapsulates the crux of a team that had a limited ceiling. Meanwhile, in each of the last two seasons where Prescott started all 16 games (2019 and 2021), Dallas finished comfortably in the top six in scoring — even pacing ahead of the entire league in 2021.
Thankfully for the Cowboys: Prescott is the living, breathing key to igniting an offense with a Ferrari amount of skill-position talent and depth.
Of course, Prescott’s imminent return doesn’t only revitalize a Super Bowl-caliber offense. Prescott’s ability to conduct a quality, high-flying attack should help Dallas’ elite, ferocious defense, too — the unit that actually buoyed the Cowboys as Prescott sat on the sidelines. At the moment, a Cowboys’ defense led by human pass-rushing buzzsaw Micah Parsons is top-10 in yardage, fourth against the pass, third in scoring, and near the tops of Football Outsiders’ overall defensive DVOA efficiency. Considering the offensively handicapped circumstances they’ve been through over the past month — the play of Dan Quinn’s unit is eye-opening.
Parsons’ individual performance has especially galvanized the Cowboys as he’s currently:
- Tied for second in the NFL in sacks (six)
- Tied for third in tackles-for-loss (eight)
- Fourth in QB hits (12)
Note: The versatile Parsons is the only player in the top five of each of these metrics. And now, he’s got complementary offensive support again. Terrifying.
That’s because now that Prescott will be back on the other side of the ball, the onus isn’t necessarily on Parsons and Co. to make as many plays as possible. Not that the Cowboys will stop harassing opposing quarterbacks to no end — that’s doubtful; they’re too good. But Prescott gives this special defense a healthy and needed margin for error, where the defenders don’t have to carry around the team’s fortunes on their backs by themselves on every possession. The Dallas defense with Parsons at the forefront doesn’t have to be perfect to excel, even if it might thrive regardless.
#Cowboys LB Micah Parsons sacks vs Rams ✭ pic.twitter.com/UD45YICFXJ
— Dallas Cowboys Network (@TheCowboysNet) October 13, 2022
There should be a small, fine-print disclaimer on the excitement behind Prescott jumping back into the fray.
As Dallas prepares for a title run — with the general unpredictability of the NFL and the Cowboys being the Cowboys mixed together — Prescott throwing live passes again guarantees nothing. Dallas hasn’t played in an NFC title game since that fateful Aikman era, and the defeats have seemingly only been even more painful during Prescott’s tenure. Last year’s quiet postseason exit after a dynamic 12-4 campaign and NFC East title might have been the most hurtful to date in the Cowboys’ 27-year Super Bowl drought. And a lot of the most recent failure was due to Mike McCarthy. Suppose anyone can sink a championship-level roster’s chances for February. In that not-so-exceptional case, it’d be the occasionally bumbling head coach who has somehow never learned to properly manage a big game, despite coaching in so many of them.
It’s unclear precisely when Prescott will return to full-time game action. But if he’s got the green light for full-go contact and practice now, it’ll be hard to see the star signal-caller miss upcoming relative warm-up softies at home against the hapless Lions and Bears. And when Prescott is slinging the ball comfortably again for Dallas, they’ll immediately be one of the NFL’s most complete teams on paper.
Whether Prescott and the Cowboys blow this potential golden opportunity for a Super Bowl is something we likely won’t know until January. But if any Dallas team were going to break an embarrassing playoff precedent and finally get over the hump, it’d be this one.
Truly, what could go wrong?
