A Czech initiative to supply Ukraine with 800,000 shells by the end of the year will fall short by more than a third unless donor countries come forward with more money, the Czech foreign minister has said.
“We have secured funding for half a million pieces of large-calibre ammunition, which we will deliver by the end of this year,” Jan Lipavský told reporters in Brussels on Monday.
But of the 18 countries signed up to the plan, three were yet to contribute. “We can deliver up to 800,000 [rounds] by the end of this year, if we can find the money – so we need money,” Lipavský said.
The first 45,000 shells arrived in Ukraine in June, with a further 100,000 due in July and August, and “from September these deliveries will accelerate”, Lipavský said.
Launched by the Czech Republic’s president, Petr Pavel, at the Munich Security Conference in February, the Czech initiative was created in response to an acute shell shortage on the Ukrainian battlefield.
It was a time when Russian forces were believed to be outshelling Ukraine by 10 to one, and the US Congress was withholding approval over a $61bn (£47bn) aid package. A separate EU initiative to buy 1m shells for Ukraine was on course at the same time to deliver just over half of its target within a year.
Unlike the European plan, which is buying exclusively EU-made ammunition, the Czech initiative sources shells from all over the world. So far most of the supply has come from outside the EU, including, according to Czech media, South Korea, South Africa and Turkey.
The Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Portugal, Canada, Norway and Sweden are among countries that have confirmed their involvement, but the Czech government is not naming other members or the three that have failed so far to deliver on their pledges.
Those unnamed three countries, however, were not responsible for the entire 300,000 gap, Lipavský indicated, describing the 800,000 goal as “the possibility which we see in the world market” to supply Ukraine with shells this year.
Tomáš Kopečný, the Czech government’s coordinator for the reconstruction of Ukraine, said the scheme began to have an impact on the battlefield as soon as May, once it became clear deliveries were imminent.
He said that reports, “especially” from Russian sources, indicated that in some places on the 685-mile (1,100km) frontline the Ukrainians were “outshooting” the Russian forces in June. “In some sectors of the frontline, the Ukrainian forces have now the upper-hand advantage in terms of numbers [of shells]. The overall picture though, is still in favour of the Russians.”
He added: “It really depends on the sector of the frontline.”
The initiative is helping supply Ukraine with 155mm shells and other Soviet-standard ammunition, but Kopečný said Ukraine’s needs were evolving.
“We are moving to a point where 155 ammo will not be the most desperately needed but it will still be needed,” he said, pointing to a need for other Soviet-calibre ammunition.
Prague hopes to make the scheme endure for a couple of years to support Ukraine against a Russian aggressor that has moved its economy on to a war footing to maximise production. Countries that are part of the consortium will be invited to pledge further funds by September to ensure three to four months of internal procedural steps can be completed in time to guarantee shell supplies in 2025.
“The only bottleneck in the system is the finances,” Kopečný said, adding that with more funds “a few million” shells could be delivered to Ukraine in the medium- and long-term. The three countries that had not delivered on promises “will probably not contribute eventually”, he added.
“We are stressing for our partners who have already contributed to continue in doing so that we would secure long-term deliveries for Ukraine in a sustainable manner,” he said.
The consortium has spent just under €2bn (£1.68bn) so far on sourcing ammunition, which mostly comes from outside the EU, reflecting the relative decline of the European defence industry since the end of the cold war. The Czech Republic is home to two of Europe’s biggest munitions factories and Kopečný said they played a role in finishing ammunition from non-EU suppliers, ensuring it was battlefield ready. “A growing part of the supply chain is being done in Europe,” he said.
