Though the latest cyclone brewing in the Bay of Bengal reminds the State of the devastating Ockhi Cyclone in 2017, which formed in the Bay on November 30 leaving a trail of destruction along the south Indian coast, especially along Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the new cyclone does not pose any major threat to Kerala.
The cyclonic storm, however, will trigger heavy to very heavy rain over Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh, while the rain will be moderate across Kerala considering the forecast of various global models. According to a weather bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday, the well-marked low pressure over the southeast Bay of Bengal will intensify into a depression on Friday.
Though the atmospheric conditions are favourable for the further intensification of the weather system, the system is expected to attain the speed of a cyclone only by December 3. Thereafter, it would move northwestwards and reach the coasts of north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh early on December 4 as a cyclonic storm, according to the IMD.
Some models indicate that the storm may take a recurve when it nears the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coasts and head northeastward along the east coast of India.
Bridging rain deficiency
The system will trigger heavy to very heavy rainfall across Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra, helping the rain-deficit States bridge the deficiency. Andhra Pradesh, which used to get a normal rainfall of around 260 mm rain in the first two months of the northeast monsoon, received only 85.02 mm rainfall till November 30, while Tamil Nadu received 330.4 mm of rainfall against the long-period average (LPA) of 352.5 mm during this period.
Kerala, which has already received 20% excess rainfall with the State netting 550.9 mm of rain against the LPA of 459.6 mm, will get only some moderate showers across the State considering the forecast of latest global models.
