Cuts to the number of poker machines in the ACT have not reduced money lost to the machines, meaning the policy has not reduced problem gambling in the capital, a new paper has found.
Just under 3600 pokies remain in use in the ACT, down from 5022 machines in 2015, but two researchers from the Australian National University found the remaining machines are used more heavily.
The number of poker machines would need to fall to about 2000 across the territory before there was any apparent reduction in spending on the machines, and other evidence-based measures to reduce gambling harm should be considered, the paper said.
"Our analysis found that venues that have reduced [electronic gaming machine] numbers have not lost EGM revenue as a result. This may be because the quantum of the reduction of EGM numbers has been too small to have an effect. However, it is not clear what scale of reduction would cause EGM expenditure to drop," the paper said.
The working paper - written by Francis Markham and Aino Suomi and published by the university's centre for social policy research - said there was no evidence the surrender of poker machine licenses had reduced spending on poker machines in the ACT.
"We can find no evidence - at the venue level or for the ACT as a whole-that the EGM surrender scheme did anything to change the amount of money lost on EGMs," the pair wrote.
"Rather, within existing venues, remaining EGMs were simply used more intensively. If surrender schemes continue to operate in the same way, we expect that this pattern will be repeated."
A Canberra Times analysis in May showed losses incurred by poker machine players had soared despite the government's policy of cutting machines.
Despite a fall in machines since 2015, the losses sustained by punters rose from $176 million to $188 million.
In 2016, a power sharing deal struck between Labor and the Greens included a policy to reduce the number of poker machines in the ACT from 5000 to around 4000 by 2020.
The parties agreed in their 2020 power-sharing deal to cut poker machines to 3500 machines by July 1, 2025.
But there was no evidence the cut to poker machine numbers had reduced spending on the electronic gaming machines, with the remaining machines more heavily used.
"Although [electronic gaming machine] participation declined significantly between 2009 and 2019, from 30.2 per cent to 19 per cent, most of this reduction happened prior to 2014," the paper said.
"The prevalence of gambling-related harm has not followed a similar downward trajectory. Problem gambling prevalence, as measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), showed no substantial reduction and even increased by 2019."
The paper said poker machine expenditure was a proxy measure of gambling-related harm on poker machines, and if changes to reduce that harm were effective, it would drive down the amount of money lost on poker machines.
Reducing poker machines had been the most important change introduced between 2016 and 2024 by the ACT government, the paper said.
"All other reforms - such as establishing an EGM-free Molonglo Valley, withdrawal transaction limits for eftpos machines - are unlikely to affect gambling outcomes in the territory," the paper said.
The findings in the working paper are likely to reignite the political debate over poker machine harm reduction policies, which exposed significant rifts between Labor and the Greens earlier this year.
An independent inquiry into the clubs sector, which would consider gambling harm reduction measures and the role of poker machine revenue, to be held after the election has received tripartisan support.
Labor abandoned a plan to introduce amendments to force poker machines to be cut back to 1000 machines by 2045 in the final sitting week of the term because they could not be assured of Greens support.
But the Greens claimed they had advised Labor they would back the amendments, after a months-long political stoush over the future of gaming machine regulation.
Greens leader Shane Rattenbury had put forward a proposal to establish a central monitoring system in an effort to introduce "best practice harm minimisation" measures that include account-based gaming with pre-commitment limits that would apply across poker machine venues.
Labor opposed the introduction of the central monitoring system on the basis of cost and the limits could be thwarted by travelling to Queanbeyan. Labor wants to cut the number of poker machines further and has pointed to research showing proximity to machines is a key determinant of gambling harm risk.
