In a world where geopolitical flashpoints push global media to focus on a narrow group of countries, turning vast regions into virtual news deserts, Cuba is a remarkable exception. For decades, it was scrutinised intensively; now it has slipped into obscurity as an undercovered Caribbean island.
Rather than adopting the ideological biases that shaped 20th-century debates about Cuba under Fidel Castro and Che Guevara, I recently sought to show the Guardian’s global audience the challenging circumstances faced by the Cuban people, which were evident when I visited Havana.
Many sources say Cuba is on the brink of a humanitarian crisis. Alongside chronic shortages of fuel and electricity across the country, a succession of other crises has emerged in recent years: economic, transport, urban sanitation, education and health. Once held up as a global example of universal access to high-quality healthcare, Cuba now faces the risk of a series of unprecedented epidemics: chikungunya, dengue, zika, oropouche and yellow fever.
After more than 60 years of economic embargo by the US – the longest and one of the most draconian sanctions regimes in history – Cuba is shaken. An exhausted society is watching its young people leave: independent demographers estimate that the population has fallen below 8 million, down from a peak of 11 million. Trapped in crisis and deprived of much of its most qualified workforce, the island has been left impoverished and largely abandoned by the international community.
In an era marked by the return of the Monroe doctrine and Donald Trump’s neo-imperialism, the communist regime finds itself increasingly isolated and threatened. As Ricardo Zúñiga, Barack Obama’s former adviser on Cuba, rightly observes, many experts have already been wrong in predicting the fall of the Cuban Communist party (PCC). It is better, then, to avoid forecasts altogether, given how often the regime has been declared finished.
Yet one warning remains: whether caused by decades of US pressure, glaring internal policy failures, or extreme weather events, Cuba is on the brink.
Andrei Netto is editor, Southern frontlines: Latin America and the Caribbean
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