Three weeks before the 2024 general election was to commence, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) enjoyed a comfortable 12 percentage point lead over the rival alliance, INDIA, according to the CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey. The Narendra Modi factor continues to play a major role in providing the NDA with its advantage. However, livelihood-related issues are emerging as major concerns in this election. Dissatisfaction over unemployment and inflation among sections of the society indicates that a tough fight is on the cards.
While a significant share of people continues to be satisfied with the NDA government, the numbers have come down compared to the 2019 pre-poll survey. Before the 2019 polls, 65% said they were “somewhat” or “fully” satisfied with the government. In 2024, the share of such respondents has come down to 57%. The share of those “somewhat” or “fully” dissatisfied has increased from 30% to 39%. Notably, the degree of satisfaction was markedly lower among the southern regions compared to the north and the west.
Three factors
The decrease in satisfaction stems from inflation, increasing unemployment and poverty — the top three “least popular initiatives” of the Modi government, according to the survey. Especially, if only voters favouring the Opposition were considered, more than half of them cited these three factors as “least liked work of Mr. Modi”. “Ayodhya Ram Mandir” was chosen by many as this government’s “most admired work”. Especially among NDA voters, one in three chose the construction of the temple as the “most admired work of Mr. Modi”.
Unemployment, price rise and falling income were also the top three reasons chosen by respondents as reasons for not giving the government another chance.
As opposed to this, “good work”, welfare schemes and “Modi is a great leader” were the top three reasons given by respondents for giving the NDA another chance.
Overall, the survey indicates that the BJP is heading into the 2024 elections with a healthy lead, although questions about its performance have left the field open.
Close to 48% of voters continue to back Mr. Modi as their choice for Prime Minister in the pre-poll survey, with 27% choosing Congress MP Rahul Gandhi.
Close to 56% of respondents trust “a lot” or “somewhat” Mr. Modi’s guarantees, with 49% saying the same about Mr. Gandhi’s guarantees. Notably, while Mr. Modi’s guarantees were trusted more by the richer households, the middle-class placed similar trust in both.
