The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 has traded in synch with bitcoin recently. Bitcoin slid 10% year to date through Friday, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 12%
This correlation is a bad sign for the world’s largest digital currency, says Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMex. “If the NDX [Nasdaq 100] tanks, it will take crypto down with it,” he wrote in a blog post.
And he thinks a slide in world economic growth and interest-rate hikes by central banks will indeed push tech stocks down.
“If you believe in unicorns, the Loch Ness Monster, and the Easter Bunny, then it is possible that you believe big tech will not suffer due to rising nominal interest rates, worsening global fiat liquidity conditions, and falling economic growth,” Hayes said.
“As I have beaten into readers’ heads since early this year, the bankers who preside over the fiat money Tower of Babel finally woke up and decided to press pause on the money printer,” Hayes said.
Steep Declines in Crypto?
The Nasdaq recently stood at 14,141, and Hayes thinks it’s ultimately headed down to 10,000.
“NDX , like all long-duration assets, benefits from falling interest rates,” Hayes said. But now rates are rising. The Fed began its rate hikes with a 25-basis point move in March, and many investors and economists expect a 50-basis point increase in May. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has soared 124 basis points so far this year to 2.75%.
“The Fed and all other central banks are fighting inflation, and must therefore tighten monetary conditions,” Hayes said. Consumer prices jumped 7.9% in the 12 months through February, a 40-year high.
The U.S. economy grew 5.7% last year. But now, “global growth will decline on higher commodity prices driven by the continuation and possible escalation of the Russia/Ukraine war,” Hayes said. The S&P GSCI Index of commodity prices has surged 26% so far this year.
All this means steep declines for cryptocurrencies, he said. Hayes sees bitcoin falling 27% to $30,000 by June 30. And he predicts ether will slip 18% to $2,500.
Bitcoin currently trades at $40,975.49, while ether is at 3,042.94, according to data firm CoinGecko.
Prognosis Might Go Wrong
“There isn’t much science to these numbers other than a gut feeling,” Hayes said. And how is he preparing for the move? “I am buying crash June 2022 puts on both bitcoin and ether.”
To be sure, Hayes doesn’t present his view as a certainty. “Nothing is certain — I only ascribe probabilities to outcomes and trade accordingly,” he said. “I fully believe there’s a chance my market prognosis might be wrong. That is fine — in that case I only lose the option premium paid on my crash protection.”
Hayes noted that he is long cryptocurrencies overall and has been buying alt coins. Still, his outlook is for a short-term drop. “There are many crypto market pundits who believe the worst is over,” he said.
“I believe they ignore the inconvenient truth that the crypto capital markets are currently just a 24/7 [S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100] indicator and do not trade on the fundamentals of being peer-to-peer, decentralized, censorship-resistant digital networks designed for the transfer of money.”
Meanwhile, renowned money manager Cathie Wood, chief executive of Ark Investment Management, remains one of bitcoin’s biggest evangelists.
“We think bitcoin has just begun” Wood said in an interview on CNBC. Institutions are just starting to catch up to individuals in using bitcoin, she said.
Wood called the world’s biggest digital currency a hedge against inflation. But she didn’t mention that bitcoin has slid 27% during the past year, while inflation has exploded.
She predicted bitcoin will ultimately reach $1 million.
