February WTI crude oil (CLG24) this morning is up +0.05 (+0.05%), and Feb RBOB gasoline (RBG24) is up +1.92 (+1.40%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are moderately higher on some year-end short covering by funds. Gains are limited by energy demand concerns due to weaker-than-expected U.S. economic news. Also, an increase in Russian petroleum exports is negative for crude prices.
Today's U.S. economic news was weaker than expected and is bearish for energy demand and crude prices. The Dec MNI Chicago PMI fell -8.9 to 46.9, weaker than expectations of 50.0.
An increase in Russian crude oil exports is bearish for crude oil prices. Tanker-tracking data from Vortexa monitored by Bloomberg shows the four-week average of refined fuel shipments from Russia climbed to 2.6 million bpd in the four weeks to Dec 24, up +157,000 bpd from the prior week and the highest seven months.
A slowdown in Chinese energy demand is bearish for crude prices. According to the China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), China's oil-products demand growth is projected to slow to +1.7% in 2024 from +16.1% in 2023.
Geopolitical risks are bullish for crude prices and have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies. At least twenty-six merchant ships have been attacked or approached around Yemen by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea since Israel's war with Hamas broke out in October. Also, concern that the Israeli-Hamas war could escalate throughout the Middle East is bullish for crude after the U.S. military on Monday launched strikes on three installations in Iraq, targeting a terrorist group backed by Iran that was accused of a series of drone attacks on American troops.
An increase in crude in floating storage is bearish for prices. Monday's weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +14% w/w to 87.12 million bbl as of Dec 22.
A supportive factor for crude was last Monday's projection from the American Automobile Association (AAA) that a record 7.5 million people are expected to fly from Dec 23 to Jan 2, the most since the AAA began tracking the data in 2000.
A bearish factor for crude was last Thursday's announcement from Angola that it is leaving OPEC amid a dispute over oil production quotas. Angola is Africa's second-largest crude producer, and the rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members is a bearish factor that signals infighting among members. Other OPEC members may balk at Saudi Arabia's attempt to force all members into a production cut.
On Nov 30, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024. However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members, nor how Russia's -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals. Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique. The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the reductions may only be voluntary.
Saudi Arabia said on Nov 30 that it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024. The move would maintain Saudi Arabia's crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years. Russia also said it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024. OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd.
Thursday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 22 were -1.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.3 below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.3% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 22 was unchanged w/w at a record 13.3 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Thursday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 22 fell by -3 rigs to 498 rigs, just above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10. The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
