October WTI crude oil (CLV23) this morning is up +0.26 (+0.30%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV23) is down -0.54 (-0.21%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are mixed. Crude has carryover support from Tuesday when Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will extend their respective crude production cuts until the end of the year. Limiting gains in crude is today's rally in the dollar index to a 5-1/2 month high.
Crude prices have support after Saudi Arabia on Tuesday said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December. The move will hold Saudi Arabia's crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years. Also, Russia on Tuesday announced it would also maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December.
Global economic news today is mixed for energy demand and crude prices. On the bullish side, the U.S. Aug ISM services index unexpectedly rose +1.8 to a 6-month high of 54.5, stronger than expectations of a decline to 52.5. Conversely, Eurozone July retail sales fell -0.2% m/m, the first decline in four months. Also, German July factory orders fell -11.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of -4.3% m/m and the biggest decline in 3-1/4 years.
Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for crude prices. The crack spread today tumbled to a 3-3/4 month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil to refine it into gasoline and distillates.
An increase in Iranian crude exports is boosting global supplies and is bearish for oil prices. According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.
A negative factor for crude prices is the progress made in Iran-U.S. relations that could lead to higher crude exports from Iran after Iran said the recent deal with the U.S. on the release of prisoners and frozen Iranian funds could lead to diplomacy in other areas, including its nuclear program. An agreement on Iran's nuclear program could eventually prompt the U.S. and its allies to remove sanctions on Iranian crude exports, boosting global crude supplies.
In a bearish factor, China's July crude imports fell -19% m/m to 10.33 million bpd, the smallest volume in 6 months. Also, Vortexa said China's onshore crude inventories have expanded to a record 1.02 billion bbl as of July 27.
A decline in crude demand in India, the world's third-biggest crude consumer, is bearish for oil prices. India's July crude oil imports fell -6.3% y/y to 19.3 MMT, the lowest in 8 months.
OPEC crude production in August was little changed, rising +40,000 bpd to 27.82 million bpd, recovering slightly from July's 1-3/4 year low of 27.78 million bpd.
A bullish factor for crude oil is a decline in Russian crude shipments. Vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed Russian crude oil shipments in the four weeks to Aug 18 dropped to 2.29 million bpd, the lowest daily average in ten months.
A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices. Monday's weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -0.9% w/w to 84.97 million bbl as of Sep 1, the lowest in 7 months.
Last Wednesday's weekly EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Aug 25 were -3.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -5.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -15.2% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Aug 25 was unchanged w/w at 12.8 million bpd, the most in over three years. U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 1 were unchanged at a 17-month low of 512 rigs. That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022. Still, U.S. active oil rigs are more than triple the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
