November WTI crude oil (CLX23) this morning is down -0.47 (-0.52%), and Nov RBOB gasoline (RBX23) is down -2.60 (-1.04%).
Nov WTI crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are moderately lower, with gasoline falling to a 3-week low. Today’s rally in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 6-1/2 month high is undercutting energy prices. Also, there are concerns that a worsening of China's property debt crisis will derail China's economy and energy demand is weighing on crude prices. However, losses in crude are limited by expectations that global oil supplies will remain tight.
Concerns that a worsening of China's property crisis will derail its economy and demand for energy is bearish for crude prices. China Evergrande Group on Sunday scrapped a creditor meeting and said it must revisit its restructuring plan. Also, China Oceanwide Holdings Ltd. disclosed it is facing liquidation after a Bermuda court issued a winding-up order against the company and involved a $175 million loan principal that wasn’t paid. In addition, concerns are growing that Chian Country Garden Holdings may suffer an imminent default after missing initial deadlines to pay dollar bond interest.
Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for oil prices. Today's crack spread fell to a 9-1/2 month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil to refine it into gasoline and distillates.
Crude prices have carryover support from last Thursday when Russia said it would ban gasoline and diesel exports in an attempt to stabilize domestic fuel prices. The ban will take out about 1 million bpd of fuel supplies, or about 3.4% of total global demand according to Vortexa data, and will squeeze supplies further in an already tight global energy market.
The tightness in the oil market is expected to continue due to the extension of OPEC+ production cuts. Saudi Arabia recently said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December. The move will hold Saudi Arabia's crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years. Russia also recently announced that it would maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December. Russian crude oil shipments in August dropped to 2.28 million bpd, down -9% m/m and the lowest daily average in eleven months.
An increase in crude in floating storage is bearish for prices. Monday's weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +11% w/w to 95.93 million bbl as of Sep 22.
The U.S. and Iran last Monday announced a prisoner exchange and the unlocking of $6 billion of Iranian funds. Improved U.S.-Iran relations could result in the eventual resumption of nuclear talks, with any deal leading to relaxed Iran sanctions and increased Iranian oil exports. According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports rose to a 5-year high of 2.2 million bpd during the first 20 days of August, with most of the crude going to China.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 15 were -2.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -15.2% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Sep 15 was unchanged w/w at 12.9 million bpd, the most in 3-1/2 years. U.S. crude oil production is modestly below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 22 fell -8 to a 19-1/2 month low of 507 rigs. That is well below the 3-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted on Dec 2, 2022. Still, U.S. active oil rigs have roughly tripled from the 18-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity from pandemic lows.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
