Oct WTI crude oil (CLV24) Monday closed up +2.59 (+3.46%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV24) closed up +1.63 (+0.77%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices Monday rallied sharply to 1-week highs. Oil prices moved higher on concern that an escalation of conflict in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies after more than 100 Israeli warplanes Sunday attacked sites in southern Lebanon to take out hundreds of Hezbollah missile launchers. Crude oil prices also saw support after Libya's eastern government called for a halt to all crude production and exports due to political conflict over who controls the country's central bank and oil revenues.
A sharp decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -24% w/w to 58.06 million bbl in the week ended August 23, the lowest in 4-1/2 years.
Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for oil prices as the crack spread Monday fell to a 3-1/2 year low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil and refining it into gasoline and distillates.
Signs of weaker US gasoline demand have prompted several US refiners to reduce refining operations, a bearish factor for crude prices. Marathon Petroleum, the owner of the largest US refinery, said it plans to cut its refining capacity rate to 90% this quarter, the lowest for a Q3 since 2020. Also, PBF Energy said it was cutting its refining capacity utilization rate to a three-year low, and Phillips 66 said it would cut its capacity rate to a two-year low.
Increased Russian crude production is negative for oil prices after Russia's Energy Ministry reported last Friday that Russia's July crude production was 9.045 million bpd, about 67,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
OPEC+ rolled out a plan to restore some crude production in Q4, which sparked worries about a glut in global oil supplies. On June 2, OPEC+ extended the 2 million bpd of voluntary crude production cuts into Q3 but said they would gradually phase out the cuts over the following 12 months, beginning in October. OPEC pledged to extend its crude production cap at about 39 million bpd to the end of 2025. Also, the UAE was given a 300,000 bpd boost to its production target for 2025. In June, OPEC crude production fell -80,000 bpd to 26.98 million bpd.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of August 16 were -5.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -3.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -10.0% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending August 16 rose +0.8% w/w to match the record high of 13.4 million bpd from the week of August 2.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending August 23 were unchanged at 483 rigs, modestly above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
