January WTI crude oil (CLF25) Tuesday closed up +0.22 (+0.32%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF25) closed up +0.0043 (+0.22%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices posted modest gains on Tuesday. Crude prices rose Tuesday on carryover support from Monday when the Chinese government pledged to revive the economy, which will be positive for energy consumption. Oil prices are also seeing support from turmoil in the Middle East after rebels toppled the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Tuesday's stronger dollar limited gains in crude prices.
Oil prices are seeing support from the promise of additional stimulus measures in China. The Chinese Politburo, the ruling Communist Party’s most senior 24 officials led by President Xi Jinping, announced that it would embrace a "moderately loose" strategy for monetary policy next year and vowed to be "more proactive" on fiscal policy, a sign of further easing ahead.
Strength in the crude crack spread is supportive of crude prices. Tuesday's crack spread rose to a 2-week high, encouraging refiners to boost their crude oil purchases and refine it into gasoline and distillates.
Tuesday’s weak Chinese trade news is a negative factor for global growth and energy demand prospects. China Nov exports rose +6.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +8.7% y/y. Also, Nov imports unexpectedly fell -3.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.9% y/y and the largest decline in 9 months.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -12% w/w to 62.74 million bbl in the week ended December 6.
Crude found support last Thursday after OPEC+ pushed back a planned hike of its crude production by +180,000 bpd from January to April and said it would unwind its crude output cuts at a slower pace than planned. Also, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it will delay the planned 300,000 bpd increase in its crude production target from January to April. OPEC+ had previously agreed to restore 2.2 million bpd of output in monthly installments between January and late 2025. However, that is now pushed back until September 2026. OPEC Nov crude production rose +120,000 bpd to 27.02 million bpd.
Escalation of the Ukraine-Russian war is supportive of crude prices. Russia launched a new hypersonic missile into the city of Dnipro late last month, following Ukraine's expanded use of Western-provided long-range missiles against targets inside Russia. Also, Russian President Putin warned that Russia could strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv with ballistic missiles. Last week, Putin also approved an updated nuclear doctrine that expands the conditions for Russia to use nuclear weapons, including in response to a conventional attack on its soil.
Crude demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, China's Oct apparent oil demand fell -5.4% y/y to 14.07 million bpd, and Jan-Oct apparent oil demand was down -4.03% y/y to 14.00 million bpd. China is the world's second-largest crude consumer.
An increase in Russian crude exports is bearish for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +570,000 bpd to 3.36 million bpd in the week to December 1.
The consensus is that Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories will fall by -1.50 million bbl, and gasoline supplies will climb by +1.75 million bbl.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of November 29 were -5.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -4.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -4.8% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending November 29 rose +0.1% w/w to a record 13.513 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending December 6 rose +5 rigs to 482 rigs, rebounding from the previous week's 2-3/4 year low of 477 rigs. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
